In the early days of the Trump administration, news headlines would suggest a chaotic, uncertain world for investors to navigate.
But in recent weeks, something else has instead happened in the stock market: volatility has disappeared and stocks have moved back to new records.
As measured by the decline in the CBOE’s Volatility Index, also known as the VIX and commonly referred to as the “fear index,” concerns among investors have been on the decline.
In a post on Tuesday, economist Tyler Cowen noted that despite an unsettled political environment, stocks remain near highs and, while markets are not great at forecasting future turbulence, “right now it is worried less than many of you are.”
Cowen added that, “I do understand that America is consuming some of its political and reputational capital. Yet so far the best prediction is that the relatively manageable scenarios are coming to pass.”
Some strategists, however, have been quick to note that just because the VIX is low, “fear” among market participants isn’t explicitly lacking.
Additionally, as Bloomberg reported last week, a decline in correlation among stocks in the S&P 500 has pushed down implied volatility for the index. Mentions of the word “uncertainty” in news stories is also at a record, according to Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway and Isobel Finkel.
Clearly, then, there are both technical reasons for a surface-level view of volatility appearing low in addition to this “surface-level view” also not really capturing volatility at all.
But the collective behavior of stock markets both now and after the election makes clear that the stock market, or, more specifically, the investor class, is willing to give Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt.
Which should not, perhaps, come as a surprise.
As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman has chronicled, the shareholder class has been the first and perhaps only explicit beneficiary of the Trump era so far. After Trump’s election, markets rallied on hopes that lower corporate taxes, broad deregulation, and infrastructure spending would jumpstart the economy and be handed down from the Republican-controlled legislative and executive branches in short order.
And in financial markets, expectations matter just as much as action if not more. There’s a reason why “Buy the rumor, sell the news” is a long-running truism.
I also think we forget that the investor class, if we define it as anyone who owns stocks, captures only 52% of US adults. And to go even further, people who actually work in the investment business skew older, whiter, and more male than the rest of the population. In this respect, they look a lot like Trump voters.