Egg prices hit a record high and are poised to go higher, but it could be a whole lot worse.
Shoppers are paying $4.95 on average for a dozen large Grade A eggs at the supermarket, according to the latest data from the government — but that's still over $3 cheaper than what grocers shell out to stock their shelves. Wholesale egg prices hit $8.15 a dozen on Wednesday, the highest level on record dating back to 1985, according to Expana, a commodity research firm.
Grocery stores aren't passing on their entire costs to shoppers because they want eggs — a staple in our diets — to remain as affordable as possible so we keep coming back to their stores. Instead they're employing other devices to keep shoppers happy, or at least not as unhappy as we could be.
"Retailers are doing everything they can to not only keep egg prices low relative to their costs," Richard Volpe, associate professor in agribusiness at California Polytechnic State University, told me, "but also to use those egg prices as a way to say, 'Hey, we know eggs are hard to come by and expensive. ... We've got them, and the price is reasonable.'"
Their efforts provide a window into our own consumer behavior, especially after the recent run-up in grocery prices scarred us. And we're likely to see more of this from grocers since egg prices are expected to keep going up through the high-demand Easter season.
'Textbook' loss leaders
Milk and eggs have long been considered "textbook" loss leaders, Volpe said, which are products priced below wholesale costs that help lure shoppers into the store.
"They're bulky. They have high storage costs for consumers. People buy them all the time [and] lots and lots of people buy them," Volpe said.
Milk and eggs are also shelved in the refrigerated section in the back of the store, so shoppers must walk through the entire supermarket to get to them. That provides plenty of opportunity to pick up an item here or there that we forgot we needed.
But this strategy has gotten more complicated as egg prices have skyrocketed. An outbreak in the avian flu has decimated laying hen flocks across the country. Once the disease is detected in one bird, hens in close proximity must also be culled to help prevent the spread of the flu.
Since this outbreak began in February 2022, nearly 158 million birds have been affected, many of them egg-laying hens. As a result, prices have surged. They've accelerated so much that it dwarfs other recent price spikes, such as when egg prices doubled in 2020, said Kevin Bergquist, sector manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.
"One could say the price trajectory [now] is like a skyrocket," he wrote to me.
(Courtesy of Kevin Bergquist)
Promotions, stockpiling, and loyalty
As a result, retailers are scrambling for digestible ways to swallow those increases. With the surge in inflation from the pandemic still haunting shoppers, grocers are reluctant to boost prices not only on eggs, but also across the board.
"It's very unlikely that retailers are out there saying, 'We're taking a hit on eggs, so we'll pad our margins on bread or breakfast cereal,'" Volpe said.
Instead, supermarkets often pull back on discounting and other promotions, such as "buy two, get one free." They did it during pandemic inflation, and if the egg crisis doesn't abate, they'll probably do it now — if they haven't started already.
Data tracking on overall grocery discounting and promotions lags, so actual figures won't be available for months. But the latest weekly stats on advertising activity for just eggs showed a decline, per the USDA, noting that "retailers continue to limit egg features due to supply concerns."
Cartons of eggs are displayed for sale on grocery store shelves in New York on Feb. 5, 2025. (AP Photo/Mary Conlon) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Egg shortages are a bigger worry than higher prices for grocers, because empty shelves upset shoppers even more. We get so worked up about it, we walk out and shop elsewhere. We may never come back.
"It causes stores to lose market share and to lose credibility," Volpe said. "So retailers really, really seek to avoid bare shelves."
That's why some supermarket chains like Trader Joe's and Costco are reportedly limiting how many eggs their customers can buy to curb stockpiling and keep the racks full.
One other way grocers are making up for their egg losses: enticing shoppers to spend more than usual. That's exactly what I encountered at a Weis Markets in Lords Valley, Pa., this weekend.
Anyone with a Weis Preferred Shopper’s Club Card who racked up 100 rewards points — by spending $100 — could get 18 Grade A large eggs for $2.99. The regular price is $10.45.
"That's loyalty programs 101," Volpe said. "They're explicitly drawing attention to eggs that are in huge demand [and] 'we're going to give you really, really cheap eggs in exchange for your loyalty, for your patronage.'"
The promotion worked on me. I added an extra case of Diet Coke to my cart to get over the limit, and voila, I got eggs for $0.17 apiece. They were so reasonable that we're making breakfast for dinner tonight.
Weis Markets in Lords Valley, Pa., featured a special on eggs for shoppers in its loyalty program on Feb. 8, 2025. (Photo: Yahoo Finance/Janna Herron)
Will prices keep increasing?
How long these grocer gimmicks work remains to be seen, especially as prices are poised to keep increasing.
Already this year, there have been 32 separate avian flu infections in the US egg industry, causing more than 20.5 million laying hens to be lost, or over 6% of the total number of hens in the country. Rebuilding those flocks takes several months, even if the bird flu recedes.
"Historically, one egg-laying hen is needed for every person in the US to meet demand," Ryan Hojnowski, an egg analyst at Expana, told me. Right now there are 340 million Americans and fewer than 300 million laying hens.
"The supply gap is becoming increasingly evident," Hojnowski added.
At the same time, egg demand remains strong in America. We love our eggs ever since we found out they're not that bad for our cholesterol after all. And we're just over a month away from peak egg time — Easter.
Still, a recent survey found that two-thirds of shoppers said the max price they're willing to pay for eggs is between $3 and $5. We're at the high end of that. Maybe that will break the demand side of the equation.
In the meantime, I should go back to Weis to see if that special is still on.
Janna Herron is a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @JannaHerron.
