If you listen to what many market commentators and journalists are saying these days, you know — or think you know — that US stocks are in a bull market. That’s because on June 8, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at 4,294, the first day it was more than 20% above its recent low of 3,577 on Oct. 12, 2022.

A 20% rise from a recent low, these people say, means that we’re in a bull market. To which I say, “bull.”

The idea that a 20% rise from a recent low puts us in a bull market has no rational basis that I can see, just as the idea that a 20% drop from a recent high means that we’re in a bear market has no rational basis that I can see.

Calling a bull or bear turn in the market sure does get attention, attracts eyeballs, and generates talk. But waiting for supposed bull markets to buy — and waiting for supposed bear markets to sell — doesn’t feel like a rational way to put money to work.

That’s especially true of this market, most of whose rise is based on eight stocks — which I call the Elite Eight. (See box below.)

Rather than being the zillionth writer to chew over the S&P, I decided to use a much broader, and far less well-known, index: the FT Wilshire 5000. That’s because the Wilshire, which Wilshire Indexes says currently has 3,480 stocks, covers the total US stock market. That gives us a much better overall picture of what’s going on than the S&P, with its 503 stocks, does.

In addition, the Wilshire — which back in the day really did have about 5,000 stocks — measures total return: stocks’ price moves up or down plus reinvested dividends. That’s much closer to investors’ actual experience than measuring just price changes, as the S&P does.

And finally, the Wilshire weight of the Elite Eight was only 24% as of June 13, the date I’m using for this column, compared with their 27% in the S&P. That makes them a tad less distortive of the total market than of the S&P. But even though the Elite Eight are less than a quarter of the Wilshire, more than two-thirds of the Wilshire’s 14.3% return so far this year comes from those eight stocks.

So if this really is a bull market, we’re looking at a very skinny bull.

That’s a major reason that some skeptics, including me, think this is an alleged bull market determined by arbitrary numbers. As opposed to a classic bull, in which rational investors are rationally expecting to get “real” returns — returns substantially over the expected rate of inflation — for an extended period.

Someone who also doubts that we’re in a bull market is Philip Lawlor, Wilshire’s managing director for market research. Lawlor notes that even though on June 13, the Wilshire was up 21% from its October low, it was still about 10% below its all-time high, set on Jan. 3, 2022.