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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS). Shares have added about 2.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Mosaic's Q3 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates on Lower Prices
Mosaic reported a profit of $122.2 million or 38 cents per share for third-quarter 2024. This compares favorably with a loss of $4.2 million or a penny per share in the year-ago quarter. Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 34 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents.
Net sales declined nearly 20.8% year over year to $2,810.9 million in the quarter. The metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,284.3 million. Lower selling prices primarily caused the downside.
Segment Highlights
Net sales in the Potash segment were $526 million in the reported quarter, down around 26.9% from $720 million in the prior-year quarter. Sales volumes totaled 2 million tons, down 9.1% year over year. The figure was higher than our estimate of 1.968 million tons. The segment’s gross margin declined to $61 per ton from $95 per ton in the year-ago quarter.
The Phosphate division’s net sales were $1 billion, flat year over year. Sales volumes in the segment totaled 1.5 million tons, down 11%. It missed our estimate of 1.634 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $96 per ton, up from $53 per ton in the year-ago quarter.
Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were around $1.4 billion in the quarter, down 17.6% year over year. Sales volume decreased 6.4% to 2.9 million tons, missing our estimate of 3.147 million. The gross margin in the quarter was $44 per ton, up from $35 per ton in the prior-year quarter.
Financials
At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $301.6 million, down 48.9% year over year. Long-term debt was $3,197.4 million, up 33.1% year over year.
Net cash provided by operating activities declined nearly 51.7% to $312.9 million in the reported quarter.
Outlook
The company projects total capital expenditures for 2024 in the band of $1.1-$1.2 billion. Selling, general & administrative expenses are projected to be $500-$530 million. The company expects net interest expense to be $160-$180 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.