Why Is Milacron (MCRN) Down 6.7% Since the Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Milacron Holdings Corp. MCRN. Shares have lost about 6.7% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Milacron Q1 Earnings In Line, Revenues Beat Estimates

Milacron reported first-quarter fiscal 2017 adjusted earnings per share of $0.32, a 19% increase from $0.27 in the year-ago quarter but came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Including one-time items, the company reported a loss per share of $0.36 in the quarter compared with earnings per share of $0.14 per share in the year-ago quarter.
 
Operational Update

Milacron reported revenues of $285 million, a 2.9% rise year over year. Revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $268 million. Excluding the unfavorable impact of foreign currency, sales for the quarter increased 4.3% from the prior-year period.

Cost of sales during the quarter went up 5.7% year over year to $192 million compared with the prior-year quarter. Gross profit declined 2% year over year to $93.8 million with gross margin contracting 180 basis points to 32.9%.

Selling, general and administrative expenses went up 3% year over year to $64.6 million. Milacron reported adjusted operating profit of $22 million which decreased 13% from $26 million in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA went up 6% to $50 million for the quarter from $47 million in the prior-year quarter.

Segment Results

Advanced Plastic Processing Technologies: Net sales inched up 0.3% year over year to $157 million. Excluding $0.9 million of unfavorable effects of currency movements, sales increased 0.9% over the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased 5% year over year to $17.4 million.

Melt Delivery and Control Systems: Net sales went up 7.3% year over year to $100 million. Excluding unfavorable influence of currency movements of $2.2 million, sales advanced 9.7% over the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA improved 6% to $32.8 million.

Fluid Technologies: Net sales went up 3% year over year to $29 million. Excluding $0.8 million of unfavorable effects of currency movements, sales increased 5.7% over the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 3% to $5.9 million.

Financial Update

As of Mar 31, 2017, Milacron had cash and cash equivalents of $88 million compared with $130.2 million as of Dec 31, 2016. The company used $8.7 million of cash in operating activities in the first quarter compared with $23.9 million in the prior year quarter. Long-term debt was $922.8 million as of Mar 31, 2017, compared with $934 million as of Dec 31, 2016.

Guidance

For fiscal 2017, Milacron projects organic sales growth of 0% to 2%. Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to be between $219 million and $225 million. Free Cash Flow (before restructuring) is expected to lie between $90 million and $100 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?