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Readers hoping to buy Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (LON:GKP) for its dividend will need to make their move shortly, as the stock is about to trade ex-dividend. Typically, the ex-dividend date is one business day before the record date which is the date on which a company determines the shareholders eligible to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is an important date to be aware of as any purchase of the stock made on or after this date might mean a late settlement that doesn't show on the record date. Accordingly, Gulf Keystone Petroleum investors that purchase the stock on or after the 17th of October will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 31st of October.

The company's upcoming dividend is US$0.09216 a share, following on from the last 12 months, when the company distributed a total of US$0.14 per share to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, Gulf Keystone Petroleum has a trailing yield of 7.7% on the current stock price of UK£1.35. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. So we need to check whether the dividend payments are covered, and if earnings are growing.

See our latest analysis for Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. Gulf Keystone Petroleum reported a loss after tax last year, which means it's paying a dividend despite being unprofitable. While this might be a one-off event, this is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term. Considering the lack of profitability, we also need to check if the company generated enough cash flow to cover the dividend payment. If cash earnings don't cover the dividend, the company would have to pay dividends out of cash in the bank, or by borrowing money, neither of which is long-term sustainable. Gulf Keystone Petroleum paid out more free cash flow than it generated - 111%, to be precise - last year, which we think is concerningly high. We're curious about why the company paid out more cash than it generated last year, since this can be one of the early signs that a dividend may be unsustainable.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum does have a large net cash position on the balance sheet, which could fund large dividends for a time, if the company so chose. Still, smart investors know that it is better to assess dividends relative to the cash and profit generated by the business. Paying dividends out of cash on the balance sheet is not long-term sustainable.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Businesses with strong growth prospects usually make the best dividend payers, because it's easier to grow dividends when earnings per share are improving. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. Gulf Keystone Petroleum was unprofitable last year, but at least the general trend suggests its earnings have been improving over the past five years. Even so, an unprofitable company whose business does not quickly recover is usually not a good candidate for dividend investors.

Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. Gulf Keystone Petroleum has seen its dividend decline 7.5% per annum on average over the past six years, which is not great to see.

Get our latest analysis on Gulf Keystone Petroleum's balance sheet health here.

The Bottom Line

From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid Gulf Keystone Petroleum? We're a bit uncomfortable with it paying a dividend while being loss-making, especially given that the dividend was not well covered by free cash flow. It's not the most attractive proposition from a dividend perspective, and we'd probably give this one a miss for now.

Although, if you're still interested in Gulf Keystone Petroleum and want to know more, you'll find it very useful to know what risks this stock faces. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Gulf Keystone Petroleum and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.