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I've been steadily buying shares of Chevron (NYSE: CVX) over the past couple of years. The main driver is the oil giant's high-yielding dividend, which provides me with a growing passive income stream. However, that's not the only catalyst. I think Chevron has the fuel to produce strong total returns over the coming years.
Here's a closer look at why I can't seem to get enough of Chevron stock.
A lucrative income stream
Chevron is an elite dividend stock. It has increased its dividend for 37 straight years, the second-longest streak in the U.S. oil patch behind ExxonMobil. Chevron has delivered above-average dividend growth over the past five years, including an 8% raise earlier this year. The oil company's dividend yields 4.5% at recent prices, several times higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% dividend yield.
The company can easily afford to pay it. It generated $22.8 billion in cash flow from operations through the first nine months of this year, which covered both its dividend payments ($8.9 billion) and its capital expenditures ($12.1 billion) with room to spare. Chevron also returned a net $10.5 billion to investors through share repurchases. And after all that, its balance sheet was still strong enough that its ratio of debt to assets came in at 11.9%, well below its target range of 20% to 25%.
Chevron has stress-tested its business and can produce enough cash to cover its capital spending plan and a growing dividend through 2027 even if Brent crude prices (the global oil benchmark) fall from recent levels in the low $70s down to $50. And it would still have the balance sheet capacity to repurchase shares at the low end of its $10 billion-$20 billion annual target range.
Strong growth with a high-octane upside catalyst
The oil company is investing heavily in expanding its highest-return resource positions, like the Permian Basin in west Texas and southeastern New Mexico; the Gulf of Mexico; and Kazakhstan. These investments position the company to grow its production at an annual rate of more than 3% through 2027. Meanwhile, these high-return investments into higher-margin areas should fuel a more than 10% compound annual growth rate in its free cash flow during that period, assuming Brent oil averages $60 a barrel. At $70 a barrel, Chevron would produce enough cash flow from operations to fund its capital program, a growing dividend, and share repurchases at the top-end of its range without tapping into its balance sheet capacity.
Chevron has another big upside catalyst that could materialize in 2025. It agreed to buy Hess (NYSE: HES) for nearly $60 billion in late 2023. However, that deal has hit a snag because Exxon believes it triggers a change-of-control clause relating to its joint venture with Hess and a Chinese oil company (CNOOC) in Guyana. Exxon is trying to block the deal to potentially increase its stake in that world-class oil field. The oil giants are currently in arbitration over the matter, which should come to a resolution in 2025.