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Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
The earnings figure itself is key, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb even higher.
2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate. The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction.
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) earns a Zacks Rank #3 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.10 a share, just two days from its upcoming earnings release on April 30, 2025.
Norwegian Cruise Line's Earnings ESP sits at 9.59%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.10 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.09.
NCLH is part of a big group of Consumer Discretionary stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Nike (NKE) as well.
Nike, which is readying to report earnings on June 26, 2025, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.10 a share, and NKE is 59 days out from its next earnings report.
For Nike, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.10 is 1.2%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, NCLH and NKE could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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