That said, delays in the massive Ohio manufacturing facility, now pushed back to around 2030, raise concerns about capacity constraints and potential missed opportunities if chip demand suddenly spikes. Intel’s challenge going forward will be striking the right balance in capital allocation and maintaining a nimble leadership team ready to seize emerging market opportunities quickly.

Robust Financials Keep Intel Fighting for Greatness 

Looking ahead to 2028, Intel’s financial health will largely depend on how well it executes its strategy. Analysts project relatively flat to slightly declining revenue in FY 2025, hovering between $50 billion and $53 billion, with a modest recovery expected afterward. Earnings per share of around $0.30 for 2025 seem reasonable, given the current margin pressures.

In my base-case outlook, Intel modestly rebounds to about $60 billion in revenue by 2028, with earnings per share approaching $3.00. This scenario would support a share price rising to around $40 from today’s $20—a steady but unspectacular return over three years, especially with the dividend still cut during the turnaround.

However, in a bull-case scenario, if Intel secures major foundry contracts and capitalizes on strong AI-driven demand, earnings per share could reach $5.00 by 2028, pushing shares into the $70 to $90 range. Conversely, if Intel falters in execution, revenue stagnates, and growth stalls, the stock could remain stuck in the $20s with limited upside potential.

Competitive Risks Can Be Overcome

Intel is facing significant challenges, and execution, especially talent retention and deployment, will be critical. Any delays or yield issues with the 18A node could undermine confidence and push foundry customers toward competitors like TSMC. Additionally, Intel faces intense competition in chip design from Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD).

Still, I believe the opportunities outweigh the risks. Despite dominant rivals, Intel’s valuation remains attractively low, with a price-to-sales ratio under 2, compared to TSMC’s 8.5, leaving plenty of room for multiple expansion as earnings momentum improves and investor sentiment turns positive. History shows that undervalued companies staging a comeback can deliver compelling investment stories.

Is Intel a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

When it comes to INTC, most of Wall Street is sitting on the fence. Intel carries a consensus Hold rating, backed by two Buys, 25 Holds, and four Sells. INTC’s average stock price target is $21.29, suggesting roughly 6.5% upside over the next year.

Although this suggests it may be premature to expect significant gains, investors who buy now and hold through the stagnation phase could reap rewards if sentiment improves—truly a case of being better off being early than too late.

Intel’s Comeback: A Tough Road Ahead, But Worth the Bet

There’s no guarantee Intel will pull off a complete turnaround, but the company is clearly taking bold steps to tackle years of bloat, strategic drift, and technological lag. Still, winning over a competitive market dominated by entrenched giants won’t be easy—it will require grit from management, sharp strategic vision, and a bit of luck. That said, for portfolios seeking value-driven upside, a modest stake in Intel could be a worthwhile investment. I’m cautiously optimistic.

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