This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

• The chart of the day

• What we're watching

• What we're reading

• Economic data releases and earnings

To say that the bears are in control of the market right now is an understatement. No one is in control. Or really, no one really knows what’s going to happen, making retreat the safer option.

But for the modelers who somehow turn geopolitical skirmishes, Capitol Hill intrigue, and corporate activity into layers of assumptions, risk assessments, and, ultimately, numbers, there’s at least some clarity in declaring what might happen by December, versus trying to make sense of tomorrow’s closing bell based off what we know today.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin became the first major name on Wall Street to lower their year-end price target for the S&P 500, following the gauge's tumble into near-correction territory.

At first glance, the lowered year-end outlook looks like a pullback. The stock market will likely end the year worse off than the previous estimate, reflecting a more than 4% adjustment, as a diminished GDP outlook weighs on projected corporate profits.

The new forecast is still well above where the market stands now. And it’s higher still than the all-time peaks of February, charting an 11% gain for the year.

But can a downward revision really be all that optimistic if other forecasts still have the S&P finishing the year above 7,000? Is viewing the downshift in a positive light just a cheap sleight of hand aimed at lowering one’s expectations?

Let us make the case. The revision comes when the mood of the day is panic and trade uncertainty is peaking. And as sobering as the vibe is, the year-end figure represents some big gains. Meanwhile, when forecasters at the end of last year predicted 2025 levels, Wall Street was knee-deep in animal spirits. A judgment made during trying times carries more significance.

Or, look at the numbers alone. Kostin's November 6,500 call at 5,900 was a 10% gain. Calling 6,200 at 5,600 is a fatter percentage.

Goldman Sachs was the first of the analyst teams we track to shrink their number, as Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer reported. And adding to the revision's bullish sentiment is the fact that it acknowledges the S&P slide but still keeps the year-end figure high. It's an updated call with the benefit of more information, even if some of that is taking myriad variables thought to be certain out of the equation.