A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Fair Isaac (FICO). Shares have added about 8.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Fair Isaac due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Fair Isaac Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Increase
Fair Isaac reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings of $6.54 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.91% but rose 30.5% year over year.
Revenues of $454 million increased 16.4% on a year-over-year basis but lagged the consensus mark by 0.21%. Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific contributed 85%, 10% and 5% to total revenues, respectively.
FICO’s Top-Line Details
Software revenues, which include Fair Isaac’s analytics and digital decisioning technology, as well as associated professional services, increased 5.4% year over year to $204.6 million.
Software Annual Recurring Revenues (ARR) increased 8% year over year, consisting of 31% platform ARR growth and no growth in non-platform. Software Dollar-Based Net Retention
Rate was 106% in the fiscal fourth quarter, with platform software at 123% and non-platform software at 99%.
On-premises and SaaS Software (40% of revenues) increased 7.5% year over year to $181.7 million. Professional services (5% of revenues) were $22.9 million, down 9.1% year over year.
Scores (54.9% of revenues) increased 27.4% year over year to $249.2 million. Scores include FICO’s business-to-business (B2B) scoring solutions and business-to-consumer (B2C) scoring solutions.
B2B revenues increased 38% year over year, driven primarily by higher unit prices. B2C revenues dropped 1% year over year due to lower volumes on myFICO.com business.
Mortgage originations revenues surged 95% year over year. It accounted for 47% of B2B revenues and 37% of total scores revenues. Auto originations revenues decreased 2% year over year. Credit card and personal loan revenues declined 5% year over year.
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, FICO experienced continued customer adoption, particularly for FICO Score 10 T in mortgage origination. The company also signed new customers and increased adoption from existing ones, enhancing its leadership in the mortgage industry.
FICO also secured two important platform partnerships with Tata Consulting Services and iSON Xperiences. These partnerships will help FICO expand its platform business and reach more customers.
FICO’s Operating Details
Research & development expenses, as a percentage of revenues, contracted 90 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis to 9.7%.
Selling, general and administrative expenses, as a percentage of revenues, increased 160 bps year over year to 27.1%.
Operating margin was 43.4% in the reported quarter, expanding 90 bps year over year.
FICO’s Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
As of Sept. 30, 2024, FICO had $151 million in cash and cash equivalents and total debt was $2.2 billion. In comparison, as of June 30, 2024, FICO had $156 million in cash and cash equivalents and total debt of $2.1 billion.
Cash flow from operations was $226.4 million in the fiscal fourth quarter compared with $213.3 million in the previous quarter. Free cash flow was $219.4 million compared with $205.7 million reported in the prior quarter.
In the fiscal fourth quarter, FICO repurchased 188K shares.
FICO Initiated FY25 Guidance
For fiscal 2025, FICO anticipates revenues of $1.98 billion.
Non-GAAP earnings are projected to be $28.58 per share.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
Currently, Fair Isaac has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Fair Isaac has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Fair Isaac belongs to the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry. Another stock from the same industry, Unisys (UIS), has gained 8.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2024.
Unisys reported revenues of $497 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7%. EPS of -$0.08 for the same period compares with -$0.33 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Unisys is expected to post earnings of $0.09 per share, indicating a change of -82.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Unisys has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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