Taxes.
Everyone has to pay them and almost nobody likes doing it. Especially US corporations.
But in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s election, it seems likely that changes are coming to America’s tax system.
And this is great news for corporate earnings.
During his campaign, Trump outlined plans to lower the US corporate tax rate to 15%. In a note to clients published Thursday, analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS) outlined how a reduction in the top-line tax rate paid by corporates could impact their bottom lines.
In short, it would be huuuge.
Right now, the statutory tax rate paid by S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies is 39%. Almost no company pays this rate. The effective tax rate, or what companies actually pay, is around 28%.
And as Goldman notes, every 1% decline in the effective tax paid by companies adds $1.50 to the S&P 500’s collective earnings per share. This is significant considering S&P earnings per share are just over $100.
In its note, Goldman assumes a Trump tax cut could pass in 2017 but that the actual statutory rate would be closer to the 28% effective rate currently paid by the S&P 500 rather than the 15% proposed by Trump. But a 28% (or so) statutory rate would yield an effective rate somewhere between 15%-20%. And this could see 2017 earnings rise by around 20% against 2016. Which would be good for stocks.
Keeping the valuation of the S&P 500 steady at 18 times earnings, the level of the benchmark index could rise to 2,250 or even 2,400 depending on where tax rates settled.
This would be a roughly 5%-15% rise in the level of the S&P 500.
A tax cut could also compound the already-positive news we’re starting to see out of corporate earnings, which appear set to rise for the first time in over a year.
In late October, S&P 500 earnings growth turned positive, with blended earnings rising 1.6% over the prior year, for the first time since the first quarter of 2015. As of last Friday, blended earnings were up 2.7%, according to data from FactSet.
And so corporate America’s so-called “earnings recession” — which was impacted by the crash in oil prices and the rise in the US dollar — looks set to end just as US corporates get another boost from a potential tax cut.
Cash coming back to America
Trump also outlined in his tax plan a proposal for a one-time tax holiday for US companies to repatriate cash held abroad, or bring money parked overseas back to the US.
Goldman previously explored this issue and found that this “tax holiday” would likely flop, given that the motivation behind it is to get cash back in the US investing in the US. Not, as previous experiences have seen, resulting in stock buybacks.