Why Is Cummins (CMI) Up 6.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Cummins (CMI). Shares have added about 6.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Cummins due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Cummins Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates

Cummins reported third-quarter 2024 earnings of $5.60 per share, which increased from $4.73 recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023. The bottom line also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.89 per share. The outperformance was driven by higher-than-expected revenues from the Power Systems and Distribution segments. Cummins’ revenues totaled $8.46 billion, up from $8.43 billion recorded in the year-ago quarter. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.28 billion.

Key Takeaways

In the reported quarter, sales in the Engine segment were down 1% year over year to $2.91 billion. The metric also missed our estimate of $2.94 billion. Sales in North America decreased 2% due to a weaker demand in the North American heavy-duty truck market. International sales increased 4% year over year, driven by strength in global medium-duty truck markets. The segment’s EBITDA rose to $427 million (accounting for 14.7% of sales) from $395 million (13.5% of sales) in the year-ago period and beat our estimate of $399.6 million.

Sales in the Distribution segment totaled $3 billion, which rose 16% year over year and topped our projection of $2.6 billion. Sales in North America increased 13%, while international sales rose 25% due to increased demand for power generation products. The segment’s EBITDA came in at $370 million (12.5% of sales), which increased from the year-ago quarter’s $306 million (12.1% of sales) and surpassed our estimate of $303.4 million.

Sales in the Components segment totaled $2.7 billion, down 16% from the prior-year quarter. Sales also missed our estimate of $2.92 billion. Revenues in North America fell 14% and international sales contracted 18% on the separation of the Atmus business and lower demand in heavy-duty truck. The segment’s EBITDA was $351 million (12.9% of sales), lower than the year-ago figure of $441 million (13.6% of sales). The metric missed our estimate of $410.2 million.

Sales in the Power Systems segment rose 17% from the year-ago quarter to $1.7 billion and beat our estimate of $1.51 billion. While power generation revenues rose 24% on the back of higher global demand (especially for the data center market), industrial revenues were up 7%, thanks to strong mining demand. The segment’s EBITDA rose to $328 million (19.4% of sales) from $234 million (16.2% of sales) and breezed past our estimate of $275.6 million.