North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has vowed to "invariably support" Russia's war in Ukraine, weeks after reportedly sending thousands of troops to fight for Russia.
Observers said North Korea's deepening military ties with Russia might leave China in a bind, with tensions on the Korean peninsula at the "most dangerous" point in more than 70 years.
According to North Korean state media, Kim pledged to expand cooperation in all areas including military affairs during a "friendly and trustworthy" meeting with visiting Russian Defence Minister Andrey Belousov in Pyongyang on Friday.
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The North Korean "government, army and people will invariably support the policy of the Russian Federation to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity from the imperialists' moves for hegemony", Kim was quoted as saying by the Korean Central News Agency on Saturday.
He also condemned Washington and the West for allowing Ukraine to use US-supplied longer-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia earlier this month as a "direct military intervention".
"It is an exercise of the right to self-defence for Russia to take resolute action to make the hostile forces pay the price," Kim said.
KCNA did not say whether Kim and Belousov discussed North Korea's troop deployment to Russia, which has fed concerns about an expansion of the protracted war.
However, it said that Belousov's visit "would greatly contribute to bolstering up the defence capabilities of the two countries ... promoting the friendly, mutual cooperation and development of the relations between the two armies".
According to assessments by the US, Ukraine and South Korea, Pyongyang has sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia - on top of the artillery and conventional weapons it provided earlier - and some of them were already engaged in combat in Russia's western Kursk region.
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Beijing's Renmin University, said Kim's latest remarks were made against the backdrop of widespread rumours about heavy casualties among the North Korean troops sent to the front lines, including in Kursk.
"He is expressing his firm commitment to fulfilling the obligations of a mutual defence treaty by supporting Russia's war against Ukraine with troops and military equipment," he said.
Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a strategic partnership treaty in Pyongyang in June that requires both states to provide military assistance "without delay" in the case of an attack on the other and jointly oppose Western sanctions.
The United States and its regional treaty allies South Korea and Japan pledged earlier this month to strengthen defence capabilities and expand coordinated efforts to counter North Korea's "dangerous and destabilising cooperation with Russia". In response, Kim urged his military to step up "preparations for a war".
Shi said it might also be that "Kim's vigorous defence of the quasi-alliance with Russia" was in large part because Putin had kept or partially fulfilled his promises to Pyongyang. These "may include not only providing advanced technology and equipment for Pyongyang's nuclear programme, but also Moscow's support in the event of a war on the peninsula".
He warned that Kim's latest pledge to Russia looked set to fan the tensions on the Korean peninsula, amid repeated provocations from Pyongyang and its growing hostilities with Seoul.
"The situation on the Korean peninsula is very grave and I would say it has reached probably the most dangerous juncture since the Korean war ended in an armistice in 1953," Shi said.
Observers say China is deeply concerned about the situation both in Ukraine and on the peninsula, as it faces growing international pressure to help rein in both Kim and Putin.
President Xi Jinping issued a rare warning on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru earlier this month, saying: "China does not allow conflict and turmoil to happen on the Korean peninsula."
With Pyongyang apparently tilting away from Beijing towards Moscow, Wooyeal Paik, an associate professor and deputy director of the Yonsei Institute of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said the deteriorating situation on the peninsula laid bare China's dilemma over North Korea.
"It is clear that China has not been comfortable with the Russia-North Korea rapprochement since last year or so," he said, noting Beijing had refrained from directly criticising either country, two of its closest partners.
"Once again, China shows that it doesn't have any real constraining power over North Korea, not to mention Russia. And China has no say if South Korea leans even more towards the US and its so-called latticework alliance system," Paik said.
China's strategic position in this region and beyond has been deteriorating, according to Paik, as it was unable to use its economic "leverage" over its neighbours, including Russia-backed North Korea and the US-backed South Korea.
Stephen Nagy, a professor at Tokyo's International Christian University, also said China was worried about Russia gaining an edge on influence over North Korea.
"This will create problems for China by likely increasing more China-focused cooperation between South Korea and Japan on the Korean peninsula," he said.
But despite China's grave concerns about the impact of the Russia-North Korea military partnership on its strategic interests, it may not have much room to manoeuvre, Shi at Renmin University warned.
"China is certainly aware that once a war breaks out on the peninsula, regardless of who strikes first, it will severely infringe on China's core interests. But what China can and is willing to do to restrain Kim Jong-un in particular is another matter," he said.
There was little sign that Beijing had taken any steps to persuade or pressure Kim or Putin so far, according to Shi.
"If Putin and Kim's core interests do not align with China's, they will not listen to China anyway," he said.
Besides, Beijing's pressure tactics in the past had failed to rein in Kim's nuclear brinkmanship.
Beijing tried to exert maximum pressure on Pyongyang in early 2017 by supporting US-led international sanctions following its sixth nuclear test, but Kim refused to bow down and this almost turned North Korea into China's enemy, according to Shi.
"I guess China must be worried that too much pressure on North Korea would not only fail to achieve the desired effect but also could be counterproductive. That's probably why we haven't seen any indications that China has moved to rein in Kim," he said.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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