Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL is currently trading at a low price-to-sales (P/S) multiple, which is below the average of the Zacks Retail-Discount Stores industry and Retail-Wholesale sector. With a forward 12-month P/S of 1.33, BURL is priced lower than the industry average of 1.70 and the sector average of 1.51.
This makes the BURL stock undervalued relative to its industry peers, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the sector. Furthermore, Burlington’s Value Score of A underscores its appeal as a potential investment.
BURL Looks Attractive From a Valuation Standpoint
Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shares of the company are currently trading 17.8% below its 52-week high of $298.89, reached on Nov. 25, 2024, making investors contemplate their next move. In the past year, the BURL stock has gained 5.8% compared with the industry’s 6.7% growth. This slight underperformance may present a strategic entry point for investors evaluating potential upside.
Burlington's transition to its Burlington 2.0 strategy has been instrumental in its recent success. By refining its product mix with a combination of popular national brands and premium private labels, the company has strengthened its value proposition. This “eliminate to elevate” approach has resonated with customers, driving comparable sales growth in the fiscal fourth quarter. The company’s focus on offering a more curated selection at various price points has enhanced shopper engagement and improved overall brand perception.
Additionally, BURL's agile merchandising strategy has allowed it to swiftly adapt to changing market dynamics. Whether capitalizing on strong back-to-school demand or adjusting to unseasonably warm fall weather, the company has demonstrated remarkable flexibility. This adaptability gives Burlington a competitive edge and reinforces its positioning as a leading player in the off-price retail segment.
Burlington continues to expand aggressively, reinforcing its long-term growth trajectory. In fiscal 2024, the company added 101 net new stores, surpassing its annual target of 100 locations. This expansion included 147 gross store openings, with 31 relocations and 15 underperforming store closures. The company has already built a strong pipeline to support at least 100 net new stores in both fiscal 2025 and 2026.
Notably, the financial performance of store openings has been highly attractive, with strong sales volume and improved productivity in relocated stores. Burlington has capitalized on real estate opportunities created by the closure of retailers like Bed Bath & Beyond, allowing it to secure prime store locations. This expansion strategy enhances the company’s market presence and positions it well to capture a larger share of the growing off-price retail sector.
BURL’s Optimistic Outlook for FY25
Burlington is poised to benefit from a highly favorable market environment. The company expects total sales growth of 6-8% for fiscal 2025, driven by ongoing store expansion and a projected comp sales increase of 0-2%. We expect comps to improve 1.8% year over year in fiscal 2025.
The adjusted EBIT margin is expected to improve 0-30 basis points from the previous fiscal year. We foresee an adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 30 basis points year over year in fiscal 2025. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecast between $8.70 and $9.30, up from $8.35 in the previous year.
Additionally, capital expenditure, net of landlord allowances, is estimated to be $950 million. For the first quarter of fiscal 2025, Burlington anticipates year-over-year sales growth of 5-7%.
Higher Costs: A Concern for Burlington
BURL has faced increased expenses, with adjusted selling, general and administrative costs rising 4% year over year to $745.6 million in the fiscal fourth quarter. Although corporate G&A expenses benefited from sales leverage, these gains were counterbalanced by increased incentive compensation and the timing of advertising expenditure.
Additionally, product sourcing costs rose to $217 million from $210 million in the same quarter last year. Higher incentive and asset protection costs affected this metric as a percentage of sales. For fiscal 2025, we expect adjusted SG&A expenses to increase 7.6% year over year.
Final Thought on BURL
Burlington offers an attractive investment opportunity due to its undervaluation compared with industry peers. The company’s Burlington 2.0 strategy, focusing on a refined product mix and improved customer engagement, has boosted its market position. BURL’s agile expansion, including securing prime retail locations, strengthens its competitive edge.
While the company faces rising costs, its positive outlook for fiscal 2025, driven by projected sales growth and margin improvements, suggests long-term growth potential. Investors may see BURL as a solid choice for exposure to the off-price retail sector. Investors should consider holding on to this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock.
Stocks to Consider
Some better-ranked stocks are The Gap, Inc. GAP, Tapestry, Inc. TPR and G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. GIII.
The Gap is a premier international specialty retailer offering a diverse range of clothing, accessories and personal care products. It sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Gap’s fiscal 2025 earnings and revenues indicates growth of 7.7% and 1.6%, respectively, from the fiscal 2024 reported levels. GAP delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 77.5%.
Tapestry is the designer and marketer of fine accessories and gifts for women and men. It currently has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy).
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TPR’s fiscal 2025 earnings and revenues implies growth of 14.5% and 3%, respectively, from the year-ago actuals. TPR delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 11.9%.
G-III Apparel is a manufacturer, designer and distributor of apparel and accessories under licensed brands, owned brands and private label brands. It carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GIII’s fiscal 2025 earnings and revenues implies declines of 4.5% and 1.2%, respectively, from the year-ago actuals. GIII delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 117.8%.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
