Why ‘Bravehearted’ Scots Will Vote for Independence

Remember Paul McCartney’s odd protest song after Ireland’s “Bloody Sunday” in 1972? “Give Ireland back to the Irish,” it went, “make Ireland Irish today.” Now it’s Scotland’s turn.

The Irish got it done with generations of grinding violence and then some tough going at the negotiating table in Belfast. The Good Friday Agreement in 1998 made Northern Ireland roughly equidistant from the republic to its south and the kingdom across the Irish Sea—a place unto itself and good enough for now, most Irish say.

If the Scots break away from Britain, they’ll do it in a referendum this Thursday. And they could well end up making Great Britain a little less great. There’s a long history here. Scots haven’t been entirely at ease since 1707, when the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland joined in a “united kingdom.” Never wonder why Scots feel a certain affinity for the French.

Related: Scots Independence Battle Reaches Fever Pitch

The questions at issue this week extend far beyond the splendid Scottish highlands. Viewed broadly, the Scottish referendum is symptomatic of serious problems all over the Western democracies, including the United States.

You see it in Spain as Madrid faces off with the Catalans and across the Continent as the dream of a united Europe meets tinder-box political resistance. In the U.S., you see it in what looks like (but isn’t) widespread indifference to policy-making processes too distant, sequestered, and opaque to grasp. To put a complex matter simply, we are confusing democracy and technocracy and people do not like it.

A referendum on independence in the land of Bobby Burns has been on the cards since the Scottish National Party took a majority in the Scottish parliament three years ago. As the vote approaches, the latest polling, while mixed, suggests a “Yes” is on the way.

Related: Scottish Independence May Cause an Economic Disaster

It is a close call two ways. First, sentiment among Scots is very mixed. Among them you find everyone from loyalists who support the British crown to fierce nationalists who would be happy to down a dram with any Irish republican. In the middle—a big category—are devolutionists of various stripes, who favor transfers of power from London within the U.K. structure as it is.

Second, dismembering a leading industrial democracy is a close call on principle. Self-determination is an unassailable right. But decentralizing democracy is a reversal of the standard idea of progress in the nation-state era. Strong countries able to assert influence are supposed to be the desired technology.