Why Is BNY Mellon (BK) Down 3.9% Since the Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for The Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation BK. Shares have lost about 3.9% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

BNY Mellon Beats on Q2 Earnings as Revenues Improve

BNY Mellon’s second-quarter 2017 earnings per share of 88 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 84 cents. The figure also came 17% higher than the prior-year quarter tally.

Better-than-expected results were driven by higher revenues and benefit from provisions. Also, assets under management reflected growth. However, a slight rise in expenses acted as a headwind.

Net income applicable to common shareholders came in at $926 million, up 12% year over year.

Revenues Improve, Costs Rise

Total revenue (non-GAAP) for the quarter increased 5% year over year to $3.95 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.85 billion.

Net interest revenue, on a fully taxable equivalent basis, was $838 million, up 7% year over year. The rise was driven by higher interest rates and lower premium amortization, partly offset by a fall in average interest-earning assets and higher average long-term debt.

Additionally, net interest margin grew 18 basis points to 1.16%.

Total fee and other revenues increased 4% from the prior-year quarter to $3.12 billion. The rise was primarily driven by higher total investment services fees, and investment management and performance fees.

Total non-interest expenses (non-GAAP) amounted to $2.59 billion, up 1% year over year. This reflects a rise in expenses in nearly all categories, except net occupancy costs, business development expenses, sub-custodian costs and amortization of intangible assets.

Strong Asset Position

As of Jun 30, 2017, AUM was $1.77 trillion, up 6% year over year. This reflected higher market values and net inflows, partly offset by the unfavorable impact of a stronger U.S. dollar (principally versus the British pound).

Moreover, assets under custody and administration of $31.1 trillion were up 5% year over year. Higher market values largely drove the rise.

Credit Quality: A Mixed Bag

Non-performing assets declined 6.5% year over year to $100 million. Further, provision for credit losses was a benefit of $7 million compared with a benefit of $9 million in the year-ago quarter.

However, allowance for loan losses increased 4% year over year to $164 million.

Capital Ratios Improve

As of Jun 30, 2017, common equity Tier-1 ratio (Standardized Basel 3 fully phased-in) came in at 11.4% compared with 11.3% as of Dec 31, 2016. Leverage capital ratio was 6.7%, up from 6.6% in the prior-quarter level.

Share Repurchase

During the reported quarter, BNY Mellon bought back 11 million shares for $506 million.

Outlook

Management is of the opinion that a rising rate scenario will positively impact margins. As a result, higher NIM will more than offset the reduced size of the balance sheet. Also, this will lead to a modest rise in NIR.

NIR is expected to be in the high end of the 4%–6% range in 2017.

As a result, it expects to generate positive operating leverage in 2017.

On an average, the company expects investment in other income to tend towards the high end of the $60-$80 million range each quarter in 2017.

Looking at expenses, management continues to expect legal and professional expenses to decline by nearly $10 million per quarter during the second half of 2017.

Further, in 2017, total adjusted expenses will not be up more than 1%.

Moreover, the effective tax rate is anticipated to be around 25–26% for 2017.