The market shrugged off Arcadium Lithium plc's (NYSE:ALTM) weak earnings report. Despite the market responding positively, we think that there are several concerning factors that investors should be aware of.
NYSE:ALTM Earnings and Revenue History August 15th 2024
Zooming In On Arcadium Lithium's Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Arcadium Lithium has an accrual ratio of 0.21 for the year to June 2024. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$713m despite its profit of US$226.4m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was US$217m a year ago though, so Arcadium Lithium has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. However, that's not the end of the story. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. As it happens, Arcadium Lithium issued 149% more new shares over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out Arcadium Lithium's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.
A Look At The Impact Of Arcadium Lithium's Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Three years ago, Arcadium Lithium lost money. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we see profit is down 38%. Sadly, earnings per share fell further, down a full 64% in that time. So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.
In the long term, if Arcadium Lithium's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by US$155m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. Arcadium Lithium had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to June 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.
Our Take On Arcadium Lithium's Profit Performance
Arcadium Lithium didn't back up its earnings with free cashflow, but this isn't too surprising given profits were inflated by unusual items. Meanwhile, the new shares issued mean that shareholders now own less of the company, unless they tipped in more cash themselves. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that Arcadium Lithium'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Arcadium Lithium you should be mindful of and 2 of these are a bit unpleasant.
Our examination of Arcadium Lithium has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
