What Happened?

Shares of iPhone and iPad maker Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) fell 3.3% in the afternoon session after an industry survey conducted by TF International Securities analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo, revealed that iPhone 16 orders were cut by about 10 million units from the fourth quarter of 2024 through the first half of 2025. Kuo, known for his often spot-on predictions on Apple, is in the bearish camp, suggesting demand for the new iPhone models might not be as strong as initially anticipated.

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What The Market Is Telling Us

Apple’s shares are quite volatile and have had 17 moves greater than 2.5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 22 days ago when the stock dropped 3.6% as the major indices declined (Nasdaq down 1.8%, S&P 500 down 0.9%) amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. NBC News reported (citing White House and Defense Department officials) that the U.S. "has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel."

Separately, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told investors there is no "preset course" regarding the pace of future rate cuts. He added in a speech delivered to the National Association for Business Economics, "Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance. But we are not on any preset course." While the markets could still be right about more rate cuts in the near term, Powell's comments added uncertainty to both the cadence and magnitude of cuts. Following these updates, the VIX index (or fear gauge) spiked as the reports created more uncertainty, which investors certainly don't like.

Apple is up 23.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $229.45 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $236.48 from October 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Apple’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $3,774.

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