Why Amazon will have success selling workout clothes

Amazon (AMZN) has been quietly staffing up to launch its own activewear brand, Re/code reported this week based on “brand manager” job listings at the Seattle-based e-commerce giant. The job posts say Amazon wants to hire people “to build authentic activewear private label brands that have compelling and unique DNA and deliver amazing consumer-valued innovation.”

Activewear typically signals running shorts, yoga pants—all manner of stretchy outerwear made for fitness. And you might have heard it called something else: “athleisure.” (Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank, among many apparel execs, does not appear to love the term.)

If this move by Amazon comes as any surprise, it shouldn’t. The company has been beefing up its apparel business for a few years, and this was an inevitable next step. And while the $44 billion activewear market (according to NPD Group) is overcrowded with players, from Nike, Adidas, and Under Armour to Lululemon and Gap-owned Athleta, Amazon can almost certainly invade the space and have some success.

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos (AP)
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos (AP)

Amazon will soon be the No. 1 clothing retailer in America

Amazon is already the biggest US clothing retailer online, and has been for a few years. But a report last year from Cowen & Co. predicts that in 2017, it will also become the biggest clothing retailer, period—climbing over brick-and-mortar giants like Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), and Nordstrom (JWN).

Think about that for a moment: A website launched in 1994 originally as a bookseller became the biggest apparel giant in America—and made it look easy. It’s all about timing: just as Macy’s and Kohl’s are faltering (both reported 2% drops in holiday sales this week, sending their shares plummeting), Amazon is picking up steam. It is “eating the department store,” Bloomberg writes.

In 2015, Amazon sold an estimated $16 billion in clothing and accessories. That amounts to less than 15% of its $107 billion in overall revenue, but that proportion has risen rapidly, and Cowen predicts the figure will grow by 30% this year, reaching $28 billion. For comparison: Nike’s total revenue in 2016 was $32 billion, so Amazon is doing half that just in clothing.

In addition to sales climbing, the total number of items Amazon offers in this category jumped by more than 90% last year. As Re/code observed a year ago, Amazon’s selection of clothing is bigger than the selection at 250 Walmart supercenters.

In other words, Amazon get into workout clothing should raise alarms for Nike, Under Armour, and others, sure, but these companies should already be very aware of Amazon’s aggressive moves into apparel. They’ve likely seen this coming.