It has been about a month since the last earnings report for AbbVie (ABBV). Shares have lost about 10.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AbbVie due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Q3 Earnings and Sales Beat, 2024 EPS View Raised

AbbVie reported adjusted earnings of $3.00 per share for the third quarter of 2024, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.92. The reported earnings also exceeded the company’s guidance of $2.88-$2.92 issued earlier this month. Earnings increased 1.7% year over year. Adjusted EPS included 4 cents of unfavorable impact from acquired IPR&D expense.

Revenues of $14.46 billion also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.28 billion. Sales rose 3.8% year over year on a reported basis and 4.9% on an operational basis. Sales growth was driven by robust sales of key drugs Rinvoq, Skyrizi, Venclexta and Vraylar, coupled with significant contributions from newer drugs Ubrelvy, Elahere, Epkinly and Qulipta. Sales of Humira and Imbruvica declined in the quarter. Sales of AbbVie’s ex-Humira drugs rose around 18% (on a reported basis) in the quarter.

Quarter in Details

Global net revenues from the immunology portfolio were $7.05 billion, up 4.8% on an operational basis.

In immunology, Humira sales declined 36.5% year over year on an operational basis to $2.23 billion due to biosimilar competition. Humira sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.35 billion and our model estimate of $2.31 billion.

Sales in the United States declined 41.6% to $1.77 billion on an operational basis due to biosimilar competition following the loss of exclusivity on Jan. 31, 2023. 

Humira sales in the ex-U.S. markets declined 7.8% on an operational basis to $462 million. International sales were severely impacted by several direct biosimilar drugs in Europe and other international markets.

On the conference call, the company said that while the erosion in Humira sales was in line with expectations, it has now begun to see more erosion in Humira volume to other novel mechanisms (including Skyrizi and Rinvoq) than previously anticipated.

In 2024, AbbVie expects Humira U.S. sales of $7.4 billion, down from $7.8 billion expected previously due to the above reason.

Skyrizi registered sales of $3.21 billion, up 51.5% on an operational basis year over year, reflecting strong volume growth and continued market share gains. Skyrizi sales beat both the Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our model estimate of $2.96 billion.

Skyrizi continues to gain robust prescription growth across psoriatic indications. In IBD, Skyrizi is seeing rapid uptake in Crohn's disease, particularly supported by robust head-to-head data versus Stelara. AbbVie expects rapid uptake for the ulcerative colitis indication, for which approval was received in the United States in June. 

Rinvoq registered sales of $1.61 billion, up 47.4% on an operational basis year over year, primarily driven by market share gains across all seven approved indications. Rinvoq sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of $1.55 billion and $1.53 billion, respectively.

Rinvoq registered particularly strong growth in IBD and atopic dermatitis, with the latter supported by the second positive head-to-head data versus Dupixent.

In 2024, Skyrizi sales are expected to be approximately $11.5 billion, up from the prior expectation of $11.0 billion due to strong momentum across all approved indications. Rinvoq sales are expected to be $5.8 billion, up from $5.7 billion, reflecting continued robust uptake in IBD.

AbbVie’s oncology/hematology sales rose 13% to $1.69 billion in the third quarter, as sales from the recently acquired ovarian cancer drug Elahere and rising Venclexta sales more than offset the declining Imbruvica sales. Oncology/hematology sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.58 billion and our model estimate of $1.57 billion.

Third-quarter net revenues from Imbruvica were $828 million, down 8.8%. However, sales of the drug beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $775 million and our model estimate of $763 million. 

U.S. sales of Imbruvica declined 8.9% to $618 million, reflecting continued competitive pressure in CLL, partially offset by higher persistency rates for existing patients. AbbVie’s share of profit from international sales of Imbruvica declined 8.4% to $210 million.

Venclexta generated revenues of $677 million in the reported quarter, reflecting 18.2% growth, driven by strong demand in CLL, especially in Europe and strong market share in frontline AML. Venclexta sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of $637 million and $627 million, respectively.

Epkinly sales, which comprise AbbVie’s share of profit from U.S. revenues and product revenues from international markets, were $43 million in the quarter compared with $36 million in the previous quarter. 

Elahere generated revenues of $139 million compared with $128 million in the previous quarter. 

In 2024, Imbruvica revenues are expected to be $3.3 billion, up from the prior expectation of $3.1 billion. Venclexta sales are expected to be approximately $2.6 billion, up from the prior expectation of $2.5 billion.

AbbVie’s aesthetics portfolio sales were up 1.8% to $1.24 billion. Botox Cosmetic sales rose 9.9% to $671 million, while Juvederm sales declined 16.9% to $258 million.

U.S. aesthetic sales were $791 million, up 3.9% year over year, driven by Botox Cosmetic growth of 6.5% as favorable pricing dynamics and facial toxin market growth more than offset modest share erosion. Juvederm sales declined 10.2% due to slowing growth in the U.S. facial injectables market. 

International aesthetic sales were $448 million, down 1.6% year over year due to lower sales in China, Sales in China, particularly of Juvederm, were hurt by persistent economic headwinds, which impacted consumer spending. This led the company to reduce its expectations for Juvederm for the full year from $1.4 billion to $1.2 billion.

Lower Juvederm volumes led the company to reduce its expectations for the aesthetics portfolio for 2024. AbbVie expects the global aesthetics sales to be approximately $5.3 billion, lower than the prior expectation of approximately $5.5 billion. However, AbbVie expects Juvederm sales to accelerate in the long term as economic conditions improve in the United States and China.

Sales from the neuroscience portfolio increased 16% to $2.36 billion, driven by higher sales of Botox Therapeutic and Vraylar as well as new migraine drugs Ubrelvy and Qulipta. Neuroscience sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of $2.32 billion and $2.33 billion, respectively.

In neuroscience, Sales of Vraylar increased 16.6% to $875 million, driven by strong growth in both bipolar disorder and adjunctive MDD. Botox Therapeutic sales rose 14.4% to $848 million, reflecting strong performance in chronic migraine. 

Duodopa sales declined 6.0% to $111 million. Sales of Ubrelvy were $269 million, up 15.3% year over year, driven by increasing prescription demand. Qulipta generated $176 million in product revenues compared with $150 million in the previous quarter, driven by increasing prescription demand. 

AbbVie lowered its sales expectations for Vraylar from $3.4 billion to $3.3 billion as continued strong prescription demand is expected to be partially offset by modestly unfavorable channel mix. Botox guidance was increased from $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion, reflecting robust demand across all indications.

Eye care portfolio sales declined 11.2% to $525 million. Sales of Ozurdex, a key drug in the portfolio, rose 1.1% to $119 million.

Among other key drugs, Mavyret declined 17% operationally to $302 million. Linzess sales declined 18.6% to $234 million.