Why 2025 Could Be the Year for Realty Income Stock

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Realty Income (NYSE: O) stock has become a market enigma over the last few years. Though the real estate investment trust (REIT) has continued to expand, its stock is down by approximately one-third from the peak it touched in February 2020 as higher interest rates reduced its profitability.

Nonetheless, the REIT continued to add properties and tenants despite the higher interest rates, a testament to the strength of its business. Now that the Federal Reserve is lowering interest rates, the stock could be due for a long-awaited recovery.

The state of Realty Income stock

Realty Income has prospered by net leasing single-tenant commercial properties. Since net lease arrangements transfer the costs of taxes, insurance, and maintenance to its tenants, it can, in theory, profit more.

Moreover, as a REIT, it is obligated to pay at least 90% of its taxable income in dividends each year. Following that rule and operating under the REIT structure exempts companies like Realty Income from having to pay corporate income taxes on the profits from operations that they distribute. Realty Income has stood out in this regard, marketing itself as "The Monthly Dividend Company." It makes its dividend payouts on a monthly schedule rather than the more common quarterly pattern, and it has increased its payouts at least once a year since it began distributing them in 1994.

Furthermore, nearly 99% of its approximately 15,500 properties currently have tenants. Though the stock has struggled, the business has continued to buy and develop properties -- including the portfolio of more than 2,000 properties it gained when it bought Spirit Realty Capital in January. This is yet another confirmation that higher interest rates have not stopped the business's growth.

How Realty Income fares financially

Not surprisingly, the Spirit Realty acquisition was responsible for most of Realty Income's growth over the last year. In the first nine months of 2024, revenue rose by 31% to $3.9 billion.

Amid the merger and impairment costs, its net income was almost $666 million in the first three quarters of 2024 and rose by only 1% yearly. Still, its funds from operations (FFO) -- a metric commonly used by REITs to provide a clearer picture of their free cash flow and operating performance -- rose by 27% year over year to $2.7 billion.

For 2025, analysts forecast 6% revenue growth for Realty Income, a level more in line with its historical averages. Consequently, investors seem to have largely ignored its 2024 revenue and earnings growth, and despite some natural oscillations, the stock is actually down by a few percentage points over the last year.