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By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. Just take a look at OceanaGold Corporation (TSE:OGC), which is up 74%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 14% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 42% in the last year, including dividends.
While the stock has fallen 3.0% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
See our latest analysis for OceanaGold
While OceanaGold made a small profit, in the last year, we think that the market is probably more focussed on the top line growth at the moment. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.
Over the last three years OceanaGold has grown its revenue at 14% annually. That's a very respectable growth rate. While the share price has done well, compounding at 20% yearly, over three years, that move doesn't seem over the top. Of course, valuation is quite sensitive to the rate of growth. Of course, it's always worth considering funding risks when a company isn't profitable.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. If you are thinking of buying or selling OceanaGold stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of OceanaGold, it has a TSR of 77% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!