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For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. Just think about the savvy investors who held Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX:CMM) shares for the last five years, while they gained 588%. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. On top of that, the share price is up 21% in about a quarter. Anyone who held for that rewarding ride would probably be keen to talk about it.
While the stock has fallen 8.2% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the five years of share price growth, Capricorn Metals moved from a loss to profitability. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. We can see that the Capricorn Metals share price is up 124% in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 8.2% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 31% average annual increase in the share price over three years. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Capricorn Metals shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 82% over the last year. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 47%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. If you would like to research Capricorn Metals in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.