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It will probably take you quite a while to find any businesses that have rewarded their investors quite like Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has. Despite being on a volatile journey, the company's shares have soared 1,960% in the past 10 years. A $10,000 investment a decade ago would be worth $206,000 today (as of this writing) with that type of gain.
Right now, this electric-vehicle (EV) stock carries a monster market cap of $1.1 trillion, easily making it one of the most valuable companies on Earth. If you're looking to buy shares, you might be wondering where Tesla will be 10 years from now. Here's a look at the future of this business.
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Still a car company
Tesla's stock performance can be partly attributed to the success of its disruptive and innovative culture. The company took the auto industry head-on with the release of its various EV models. And today, Tesla is a leader in this niche, with about 50% market share in the U.S.
It's no surprise that in the most recent quarter, 79% of Tesla's overall revenue came directly from the sale of cars. The business does have a budding energy generation and storage unit. However, EVs drive Tesla's financial performance.
I believe there's a significant likelihood that Tesla will remain a developer, manufacturer, and seller of EVs a decade from now. There's still a long way to go in terms of adoption, both domestically and abroad.
But some investors might not like this perspective. That's because in recent times, Tesla has broken away from its hyper-growth days and now resembles a traditional automaker. Its revenue growth through the first nine months of 2024 was up just 0.5% year over year, and the Q3 operating margin of 10.8% was well below the figure from two years ago.
Transitioning to a software business
Tesla's strongest bulls, as well as its founder and CEO Elon Musk, envision a totally different future. The company is working to one day launch and operate a global fleet of self-driving robotaxis. Tesla provided more info on this vision in early October, mentioning that it plans to start production of the smaller and cheaper CyberCabs in 2026.
Imagine a scenario where driverless Tesla EVs roam the streets, picking up and dropping off passengers at all hours of the day. By operating the software powering these cars, Tesla can earn a high-margin revenue stream. That's the ultimate plan, and if it comes to fruition, it could improve the financial picture for the business.