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(Bloomberg) -- The stock market’s crazy first five months of 2025 have left Wall Street pros in a bit of a pickle.
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Coming off the best month for the S&P 500 Index in a year and a half and the best May since 1990, the benchmark is still basically flat for 2025 and putting up one of its worst starts to a year since the 1950s. In a rare switch, it’s also getting handily beaten by stock markets around the world.
Yes, the S&P rebounded from its lowest level since December 2023, which it hit in April, and is less than 4% from its all-time high. But raging uncertainties from President Donald Trump’s trade wars, to slowing growth, to geopolitical tensions, to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path have left corporate executives as pessimistic as they’ve been since 2022, according to the Conference Board’s latest CEO confidence survey.
And to make matters even more complicated, the stock market is about to enter what’s historically one of its quietest months for gains. Over the past 30 years, the S&P’s average return is roughly flat for June, as much of Wall Street begins its summer holiday season. Meaning in 30 days there’s a decent chance we’ll be sitting right where we are now.
With all that going on, what’s an investor to do?
“Trying trade through all of this has been really tough as everyone rides through this chaotic storm,” said Eric Beiley, executive managing director of wealth management at Steward Partners, who has nearly 10% of his portfolio in cash and is buying international and defensive stocks. “May’s gains have given confidence back to investors, but holding put seems like the safer bet for now until we know more about the outlook on trade and rates.”
Here are five charts that show just how rocky the US stock market’s ride has been this year:
The S&P 500’s 19% plunge from its Feb. 19 record — which pushed it into a correction in just 16 trading days and brought it to the brink of a bear market — gave bulls some attractive entry points to buy into the stock market. But after its almost 19% rebound since then, equity valuations have gotten much more stretched.
That, however, doesn’t mean US stocks are actually doing well compared to the rest of the world. The S&P 500 is trailing the MSCI All Country World Index excluding the US Index by almost 12 percentage points in 2025, marking the worst start to a year against its global peers since 1993 and its second-worst ever, data compiled by Bloomberg show.