AI leader NVIDIA NVDA is in the spotlight as it is set to release its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results after market close on Feb. 26. The chipmaker, which powered the bull market, has faltered in recent weeks ahead of its earnings announcement.
The chipmaker has lost 4.3% over the past three months against the industry’s growth of 4.1%. Shares of NVIDIA hit a new all-time high in early January but lost momentum on DeepSeek challenge to the domestic AI stocks. The chipmaker could regain its lost strength if it comes up with an earnings beat (read: AI Winners Following the DeepSeek Disruption).
ETFs having the largest allocation to NVIDIA will be in focus ahead of its earnings report. These include Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF SHOC, VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF SMH, VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF SMHX, YieldMax Target 12 Semiconductor Option Income ETF SOXY and Columbia Semiconductor and Technology ETF SEMI.
Earnings Whispers
NVIDIA currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). According to our methodology, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The AI leader saw no earnings estimate revisions for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 over the past 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for 70.7% revenue growth and 61.5% earnings growth for the fiscal fourth quarter. NVIDIA’s earnings surprise history is also good, as it delivered an earnings surprise of 9.79%, on average, in the last four quarters.
NVIDIA Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
NVIDIA Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
NVIDIA has a Growth Score of B and belongs to a top-ranked Zacks industry (in the top 23%), suggesting that it is primed for growth.
Wall Street analysts maintained their bullish view on the stock, with a recommendation of 1.23 on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), made by 44 brokerage firms. Of these, 38 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy, respectively, account for 86.36% and 4.55% of all recommendations.
Based on short-term price targets offered by 42 analysts, the average price target for NVIDIA comes to $177.43. The forecasts range from a low of $135.00 to a high of $220.00.
DeepSeek Turmoil
NVIDIA plummeted nearly 17%, wiping about $600 billion in market value — the largest single-day loss in U.S. stock market history after DeepSeek, a China-based artificial intelligence (AI) startup, threatened to disrupt American dominance. Since then, shares have mostly bounced back, with analysts seeing even more room to run (read: DeepSeek Shakes US Tech Dominance: Impact on Stocks & ETFs).
In fact, booming demand for DeepSeek’s low-cost AI models is providing a boost to NVIDIA as Chinese companies are ramping up orders for NVIDIA's H20 artificial intelligence chip. The surge in orders could help alleviate concerns that DeepSeek might cause a slide in AI chip demand.
AI to Fuel Growth
NVIDIA is a global leader in the AI chip market, controlling between 80% and 95% of the market, according to Reuters. Its success is largely attributed to its leadership in developing advanced graphics processing units (GPUs), which are unmatched in producing processors that power artificial intelligence systems, including generative AI, the technology backing OpenAI’s ChatGPT that can create text, images and other media. Most analysts believe NVIDIA will become far more valuable in the future due to its dominance in the billion-dollar AI chip market.
On the last conference call, CEO Jensen Huang said “The age of AI is in full steam, driving a global transition to NVIDIA computing.” As such, NVIDIA launched a raft of new chips, software and services in January, aiming to stay at the forefront of artificial intelligence computing. It debuted the latest generation of graphics processors for desktop and laptop gaming systems, dubbed the GeForce RTX 50 Series. The series includes RTX 5090, RTX 5080, RTX 5070 Ti and RTX 5070 (read: NVIDIA Regains Momentum on AI Growth: ETFs to Tap).
The AI chip leader also debuted NVIDIA Cosmos, a computing platform for accelerating physical AI development. Further, the company announced a high-end personal computer called Project Digits, powered by NVIDIA GB10 Grace Blackwell Superchip and running the Linux-based NVIDIA DGX operating system.
The company’s chief financial officer, Colette Kress, revealed that Blackwell production will begin in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 and ramp up in fiscal 2026. “Demand for Blackwell is expected to exceed supply for several quarters,” Kress said. Management expects NVIDIA’s gross profit margin to rebound as its Blackwell chip family ramps into bigger volumes.
For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the graphics chipmaker expects revenues of $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%.
What Does NVDA’s Valuation Say?
NVIDIA is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 31.95, slightly lower than the Semiconductor - General industry average of 32.26. Further, the stock is currently trading at a PEG ratio of 1.60, much lower than the industry average of 2.24. The lower the PEG ratio, the better the value, as investors would pay less for each unit of earnings.
ETFs in Focus
Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF (SHOC) – NVIDIA exposure: 19.5%
Columbia Semiconductor and Technology ETF (SEMI) – NVIDIA exposure: 17.7%
Single-Stock ETFs
Investors seeking to take on more risk could bet on single-stock ETFs with 200% exposure to NVIDIA. These include the T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF NVDX and the GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF NVDL.
Roundhill NVDA WeeklyPay ETF NVW seeks to provide weekly distributions and calendar week returns, equal to 1.2 times (120%) the calendar week total return of NVIDIA shares.
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