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Valero Energy Corporation VLO is set to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 30, before the opening bell.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
In the last reported quarter, Valero Energy’s adjusted earnings of $1.14 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29, primarily due to a significant decline in refining throughput volumes. Earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 8.17%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Valero Energy Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Valero Energy Corporation price-eps-surprise | Valero Energy Corporation Quote
Estimate Trend
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.14 has witnessed five downward revisions and no upward revision in the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests a decline of 96.06% from the prior-year reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $30.75 billion indicates a 13.16% decline from the year-ago recorded figure.
Factors to Consider
Valero Energy is expected to have maintained a stable performance in the fourth quarter, owing to high refinery utilization rates during this period. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, spot prices for West Texas Intermediate Crude fell approximately 10% from the prior-year reported figure. This is likely to have reduced input costs, thereby aiding VLO’s profitability in the fourth quarter.
However, challenges are likely to have loomed due to weaker global refinery margins, mainly due to the declining demand for refined petroleum products on account of a global economic slowdown. Crack spreads, a critical indicator of refining margins, showed signs of contraction in the fourth quarter compared with the third.
Lower margins on gasoline and distillates, particularly in key refining regions like the U.S. Gulf Coast, could have pressured Valero's profitability. The weaker global demand for refined products, coupled with high inflation and heightened competition abroad, might have negatively impacted VLO’s profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.
These factors are anticipated to have affected demand and pricing dynamics, potentially hampering Valero Energy’s quarterly performance.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for VLO this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.