Invitation Homes INVH is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 26, 2025, after the market close. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display a year-over-year increase in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.
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In the last reported quarter, this residential real estate investment trust (REIT) posted a core FFO per share of 47 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents. Results reflected a rise in total revenues and same-store blended rent.
Over the preceding four quarters, INVH’s core FFO, per share, met the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and surpassed it in the other two periods, with the average beat being 1.09%. The graph below depicts this surprising history:
Invitation Home Price and EPS Surprise
Invitation Home Price and EPS Surprise
Invitation Home price-eps-surprise | Invitation Home Quote
In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. apartment market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that may have contributed to its fourth-quarter 2024 performance.
U.S. Apartment Market in Q4
Per RealPage data, the U.S. apartment demand surged to its highest level in almost three years in the fourth quarter of 2024, comfortably surpassing the record-high new supply seen that year.
Between October and December 2024, the U.S. apartment market absorbed 230,819 market-rate units, while 155,408 new units were delivered during the same period. Annual supply hit 588,883 units, while demand led to 666,699 units.
As demand exceeded supply, U.S. apartment occupancy saw a notable annual increase, reaching 94.8% in December. The annual occupancy change was 0.7%. However, rent growth remained stagnant due to the pressure of historically high new supply levels. Rents rose 0.5% in 2024, and the monthly effective rent change was down 0.3%. The average effective rent was $1,823.
Factors at Play for Invitation Homes
Amid this surge in demand, INVH’s quarterly performance is likely to have benefited from a high-quality portfolio of single-family rental units in infill locations in the Western United States, Sunbelt and Florida. Solid demand for such rental units in the high-growth markets with favorable demographic trends might have aided the company’s fourth-quarter earnings.
INVH’s asset-light model, through a partnership with homebuilders for built-to-rent units, offers healthy yields with limited risk. The high-margin and growing third-party management business might have positively contributed to its fourth-quarter revenues.
However, the high supply of rental properties in some markets may have had an adverse impact. Particularly in markets like Tampa, Orlando, Dallas and Phoenix, the company is witnessing supply pressures on the new lease side and slower absorption, resulting in lower rental rates. High-interest expenses might have also acted as a deterrent.
Projections for INVH
For the fourth quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for INVH’s rental revenues currently stands at $644 million, implying growth of 14.2% from the prior-year period’s reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter total revenues is pegged at $663.2 million, indicating a rise of 6.2% from the year-ago reported number.
Invitation Homes’ activities in the to-be-reported quarter were inadequate to garner analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share has been lowered marginally to 47 cents over the past two months. However, the figure suggests a 4.4% increase year over year.
For full-year 2024, INVH expected its core FFO per share in the band of $1.86-$1.90. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same has remained unchanged over the past three months at $1.88. The figure indicates a 6.2% increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 total revenues is pegged at $663.2 million, indicating a rise of 6.2% from the year-ago reported number.
INVH expected growth for 2024 same-store core revenues between 4-4.5%, same-store core operating expenses in the range of 3.25-4.25% and same-store NOI between 4-5%.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for Invitation Homes
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for INVH this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.
Invitation Homes currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.61% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are two stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.
One is from the residential REIT sector, Sun Communities SUI, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 26. SUI has an Earnings ESP of +1.64% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
OUTFRONT Media OUT, from the broader REIT sector, is slated to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 25. OUT has an Earnings ESP of +0.95% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.
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