In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of WH Smith PLC (LON:SMWH) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (£, Millions)
UK£69.0m
UK£101.8m
UK£123.7m
UK£132.0m
UK£144.0m
UK£153.0m
UK£160.6m
UK£167.3m
UK£173.2m
UK£178.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x4
Analyst x3
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 6.24%
Est @ 5.00%
Est @ 4.13%
Est @ 3.53%
Est @ 3.10%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8%
UK£63.4
UK£85.9
UK£96.0
UK£94.1
UK£94.3
UK£92.1
UK£88.9
UK£85.0
UK£80.9
UK£76.6
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£857m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.8%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£2.7b÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= UK£1.2b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£2.0b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£11.5, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
LSE:SMWH Discounted Cash Flow January 15th 2025
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at WH Smith as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.384. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for WH Smith
Strength
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Specialty Retail market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For WH Smith, there are three additional items you should consider:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for WH Smith that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does SMWH's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
