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Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. That downside risk was realized by WEX Inc. (NYSE:WEX) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 38%. That's well below the market return of 11%. At least the damage isn't so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 21% in that time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 28% in the last 90 days.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last year, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Even though the WEX share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.
It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.
WEX managed to grow revenue over the last year, which is usually a real positive. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
WEX is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for WEX in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
Investors in WEX had a tough year, with a total loss of 38%, against a market gain of about 11%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 0.6%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand WEX better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with WEX .