Update: Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) Stock Gained 25% In The Last Year

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These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. To wit, the Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) share price is 25% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 15% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! However, the stock hasn't done so well in the longer term, with the stock only up 3.5% in three years.

Check out our latest analysis for Wesfarmers

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last year Wesfarmers grew its earnings per share (EPS) by 9.7%. The share price gain of 25% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is now more optimistic about the stock.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

ASX:WES Past and Future Earnings, February 25th 2020
ASX:WES Past and Future Earnings, February 25th 2020

We know that Wesfarmers has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? Take a more thorough look at Wesfarmers's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Wesfarmers the TSR over the last year was 36%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Wesfarmers has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 36% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 13%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Wesfarmers you should know about.