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Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. But the harsh reality is that very many loss making companies burn through all their cash and go bankrupt.
So should Bicycle Therapeutics (NASDAQ:BCYC) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? For the purpose of this article, we'll define cash burn as the amount of cash the company is spending each year to fund its growth (also called its negative free cash flow). The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.
View our latest analysis for Bicycle Therapeutics
When Might Bicycle Therapeutics Run Out Of Money?
A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. As at September 2024, Bicycle Therapeutics had cash of US$891m and no debt. Importantly, its cash burn was US$204m over the trailing twelve months. So it had a cash runway of about 4.4 years from September 2024. A runway of this length affords the company the time and space it needs to develop the business. Importantly, if we extrapolate recent cash burn trends, the cash runway would be noticeably longer. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.
How Well Is Bicycle Therapeutics Growing?
It was quite stunning to see that Bicycle Therapeutics increased its cash burn by 324% over the last year. On the bright side, at least operating revenue was up 49% over the same period, giving some cause for hope. In light of the data above, we're fairly sanguine about the business growth trajectory. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.
How Hard Would It Be For Bicycle Therapeutics To Raise More Cash For Growth?
Bicycle Therapeutics seems to be in a fairly good position, in terms of cash burn, but we still think it's worthwhile considering how easily it could raise more money if it wanted to. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.