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We're About to Find Out the Answer to Warren Buffett's Pointed Question About Trump's Tariffs. Here Are 3 Stocks to Buy Depending on What That Answer Is.
Contrary to what you might read on social media, Warren Buffett isn't a fan of tariffs. Berkshire Hathaway even recently took the unusual step of issuing a press release refuting social media claims that Buffett applauded President Trump's economic policies.
In an interview with CBS News in March, Buffett called tariffs an "act of war." He said the important question to ask about tariffs is, "And then what?"
We're about to find out the answer to Buffett's pointed question about Trump's tariffs. Here are three stocks to buy depending on what that answer is.
If tariffs work as well as Trump predicts: Amazon
The White House released a "fact sheet" arguing that Trump's tariffs will create "better-paying American jobs making beautiful American-made cars, appliances, and other goods." The Trump administration believes its protectionist trade policy will "address the injustices of global trade, reshore manufacturing, and drive economic growth for the American people."
Many stocks should perform well if tariffs work as well as the president and his team predict. If Americans indeed become more prosperous thanks to tariffs, I think Amazon(NASDAQ: AMZN) could be one of the biggest winners.
Consumers with greater buying power are more likely to shop on Amazon's e-commerce platform. If companies move operations from overseas to the U.S., they could rely on software running in the cloud. As the largest cloud services provider, Amazon Web Services stands to benefit.
Amazon's share price remains more than 20% below its previous high. Every time in the past the stock has fallen significantly, it presented a tremendous buying opportunity for long-term investors. I think that's true again, especially if Trump's tariff policy is as successful as the White House expects.
If tariffs cause higher inflation and slower economic growth: Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Despite the White House's optimism, many economists think the president's tariffs could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth, a worrisome combination called stagflation. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell seems to be in that camp. He recently said that the Trump administration's larger-than-expected tariffs could cause "higher inflation and slower growth."
In this scenario, I think Vertex Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ: VRTX) will be one of the best stocks to own. Vertex markets the only approved therapies that treat the underlying cause of cystic fibrosis (CF). It's ramping up commercialization efforts for Casgevy, a gene-editing therapy that cures two rare blood disorders -- sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia. In addition, Vertex recently won U.S. regulatory approval for Journavx, a non-opioid drug for acute pain.
Will surging inflation and slower economic growth cause physicians to stop prescribing powerful CF therapies, a cure for two rare blood diseases, or a pain drug that isn't addictive? Will patients quit taking these life-changing drugs? No and no.
What's more, Vertex could have other big winners on the way. It's evaluating two drugs in late-stage testing that target kidney diseases. The company hopes to win another approval for Journavx in treating painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Vertex even has a potential cure for severe type 1 diabetes in a pivotal clinical trial. Stagflation shouldn't be able to hold back this great biotech stock.
If tariffs lead to a global trade war and recession: Barrick Gold
Now for the worst-case scenario. The possibility exists that Trump's tariffs could lead to a global trade war. China is retaliating against the administration's steep tariffs. Other countries could follow suit. Several Wall Street firms have increased their estimates of the probability that the U.S. will enter into a recession.
Most stocks won't perform well if there's a global trade war and recession. However, Barrick Gold(NYSE: GOLD) is likely to be an exception. Shares of this top gold and copper mining company have soared so far in 2025 as the overall stock market has tanked.
Gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven during turbulent economic times. Many investors could see Barrick Gold as a proxy for gold without owning the commodity itself.
The average analyst's 12-month price target for Barrick Gold reflects an upside potential of around 27%. Should Trump's tariffs cause a worst-case scenario, I suspect this gold-mining stock will soar much higher than what Wall Street projects.
Most likely answer to Buffett's question?
I don't think history and economics support the rosy expectations of the White House that steep tariffs will spur economic growth. However, I wouldn't be surprised if negotiations with other countries lead to the bilateral relaxation of tariffs. That would be good for the U.S. and global economy. And it would be good for Amazon.
But Trump seems to be convinced that steep tariffs are needed to achieve his vision for the country. Perhaps the most likely answer to Buffett's question of "and then what" is that either stagflation or recession is on the way. If so, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Barrick Gold could be investors' best bets. I view Vertex as the better pick, though, since it's positioned well regardless of what happens with the economy.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Keith Speights has positions in Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
