The Stats

It was a busy week on the economic calendar for the week ending 25^th February.

A total of 57 stats were monitored, following 66 stats in the week prior.

Of the 57 stats, 35 came in ahead of forecasts, with 14 economic indicators coming up short of forecast. Eight stats were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 32 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 25 stats, 22 reflected a deterioration from previous numbers.

While the stats drew interest, geopolitics remained the key driver. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine weighed heavily on riskier assets in the week, with safe-haven demand supporting the Dollar.

Out of the U.S

Private sector PMI and consumer confidence figures drew attention early in the week. While consumer confidence weakened in February, private sector activity picked up. According to prelim figures, the all-important services PMI rose from 51.2 to 56.7.

In the 2^nd half of the week, Q4 GDP, jobless claims, inflation, personal spending, and core durable goods were in focus.

Jobless claims and GDP figures were market positive. Friday stats were mixed, however.

Core durable goods rose by 0.7% with personal spending jumping by 2.1% in January. Inflationary pressures ticked up, with the Core PCE Price Index up 5.2% year-on-year, in January. This was up from 4.9% in December.

In the week ending 25^th February, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.55% to end the week at 96.615. In the week prior, the Index increased by 0.02% to 96.106.

Out of the UK

Prelim private sector PMIs were key in the week. The stats were Pound positive. According to prelim figures, the UK’s services PMI jumped from 54.1 to 60.8. Manufacturing sector activity held steady, supporting a rise in the composite from 54.2 to 60.2.

In the week, the Pound slid by 1.14% to end the week at $1.3409. In the week prior, the Pound had risen by 0.18% to $1.3589.

The FTSE100 ended the week down 2.24%, following a 1.92% loss from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

It was a busy week for the EUR.

Early in the week, private sector PMI numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone were in focus. The numbers were positive, with the Eurozone’s composite PMI rising from 52.3 to 55.8.

Mid-week, German business, and consumer sentiment figures delivered mixed results ahead of upward revisions to GDP numbers for Q4. Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index rose from 96.0 to 98.9, while the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator fell from -6.7 to -8.1.

In the 4^th quarter, the German economy contracted by 0.3%, up from a 1^st estimate 0.7% contraction.