USDA releases move markets. With our new listing of Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday options on Corn, Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil and Wheat futures, market participants have unprecedented access to precision hedge their exposure or express a market view as agricultural numbers are released. Complementing the preexisting Friday options on Grains and Oilseeds futures, we will now offer options on benchmark Agricultural products expiring every business day.
Among major USDA reports for Grains and Oilseeds markets, some releases are regularly scheduled for specific weekdays, while others fall on a different day of the week across months and years. Here, we examine the upcoming planting season’s release schedule in light of the new weekday listings. We then look back to 2024 to glean actionable insight from the year’s releases.
Weekday action for 2025
Figure 1
Source: USDA
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), a hotly anticipated monthly report that provides annual supply and demand forecasts of domestic and international wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and others, will be released on two Mondays, four Tuesdays, three Thursdays and three Fridays this year.
Acreage and Prospective Plantings, closely watched annual reports containing survey-based acreage projections and estimates for the respective present crop year, slated for the last business days of March and June, respectively, both fall on Mondays in 2025. Grains Stocks, a quarterly report espousing both on-farm and off-farm supply, will hit two Mondays, one Tuesday and one Friday.
In terms of reports scheduled for specific weekdays, Crop Progress is released on the first business day of each week (generally a Monday) at 3:00 p.m. CT during the primary planting season of April through November. Export Sales, which covers softs and livestock products in addition to grains and oilseeds, comes out each Thursday at 7:30 p.m. CT throughout the year.
2024 tells the story
The figure below shows the average daily intraday trade price range each weekday in front-month Corn futures, comparing days on which a notable USDA report (WASDE, Prospective Plantings, Acreage, Grain Stocks and Export Sales) is released to those with no report. Export Sales is released every Thursday, and thus Thursdays on average exhibit larger inter-day market moves than weekdays on which no major USDA report is released.
Figure 2
Source: CME Group and USDA
Showing the data reported in Figure 2 in more detail, Table 1 below shows the average intraday price ranges for front-month Corn futures instruments in 2024, grouped by weekday and by USDA report release.
On days when there was no Acreage, Crop Progress, Export Sales, WASDE or Prospective Plantings released, the average intraday trade price range for front-month Corn futures was 7.17 cents per bushel. On days with a report, the average intraday trade price range was 8.62 cents per bushel, demonstrating greater average price movement on report days.
Table 1: FM Corn intraday trade price ranges on USDA report releases in 2024
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Average
No Report
7.46
7.33
6.49
7.58
7.17
Report
9.27
8.40
6.60
7.87
12.29
8.62
Acreage Corn Planted
28.60
28.60
Condition - Corn
8.84
8.90
8.85
Export Sales
7.41
7.41
Prosp. Planting - Corn
22.00
22.00
USDA Quarterly Corn Stocks
12.20
12.20
WASDE Corn End Stocks
12.80
7.40
6.60
9.40
9.57
9.37
Source: CME Group and USDA
Spotlight: Major surprises in 2024
Alternatively referred to as Planting Intentions, Prospective Plantings is an annual report released at 11:00 a.m. CT (12:00 p.m. ET) on the last business day in March. Compiled and released by NASS, the report contains the expected planting acreage for the upcoming crop year based on a large-scale survey of U.S. farmers.
Released on Thursday, March 28, 2024, last year’s Prospective Plantings reported an estimated national corn acreage to be 90,036,000 acres, a sharp decline from the prior year’s count of 91,996,000 and a very sharp decline from the survey consensus of 92 million. The relatively paltry report sent Corn futures soaring on the release. May 2024 Corn futures opened at 426.75, jumped up 15.50 cents to 442 on the close and covered a high-low range of 22 cents over the day.
Figure 3
Source: CME Group
The USDA Acreage report, which is released on the last business day of June, can be seen as an extension of Prospective Plantings. While Prospective Plantings reports intended acreage for principal crops for the upcoming crop year, Acreage reports results of a survey of farmers after planting has been completed, serving as an indicator of how well the reality of the crop year met spring expectations.
On Friday, June 28, 2024, the USDA Acreage report noted 91,475,000 acres, with industry estimates again missing the mark. This time, however, the major polling estimate of 90,500,000 undershot the release. Now, with the USDA reporting greater acreage than anticipated, Corn futures plummeted. Over the course of the day, September 2024 Corn futures covered a high-low range of 28.75 cents, the largest intraday range of any Corn futures instrument in 2024.
Figure 4
Source: CME Group
The 2024 Prospective Plantings and Acreage report days marked two of the top three days for inter-day settlement price movement for front-month Corn futures that year, and both days were among the most heavily traded in terms of Corn futures volume.
The other day within the aforementioned top three was July 8, 2024, a day that a Crop Progress report was released. Crop Progress, released weekly during the planting season, reports on the crop condition and growing stage by crop and by region. July 8, 2024, Crop Progress provided a high percentage of U.S. corn to be in “good” or “excellent” condition, suggesting high yields and thus high supply for the crop year, plunging Corn futures deeper, feeding momentum from the bearish Acreage report only a week and a half prior.
The trades ahead
With the launch of new Weekly options, we now offer options on Corn, Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil and Wheat futures expiring on every trade date. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday Weekly options on Grains and Oilseeds futures are listed two weeks out on a rolling basis.
No matter your exposure or view, CME Group offers flexible and innovative risk management solutions. Learn more about our suite of short-dated Agricultural options at www.cmegroup.com/agweeklyoptions
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All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
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