The Week Ahead – It’s a Hectic Week Ahead. Stats and Geopolitics are in Focus

In This Article:

On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 61 stats to monitor over the week.

For the Dollar:

After a shortened week last week, it’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

ISM and Markit Manufacturing PMI numbers get things going on Monday. The market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI will have the greatest impact on the day.

The focus will then shift to a busy Wednesday.

ADP nonfarm employment change figures for October are due out ahead of ISM and Markit service PMI numbers.

On the day, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP numbers will have the greatest impact on the Dollar.

On Thursday, expect factory orders to provide direction ahead of a busy Friday.

November wage growth, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate will be in focus on Friday.

Strong labor market conditions continue to support consumption and service sector activity.

Any weak numbers would test the Greenback ahead of prelim December consumer sentiment figures.

The weekly jobless claims figures and October trade data on Thursday will be of less influence in the week.

Outside of the numbers, trade talks will continue to influence as will impeachment chatter. Hearings resume in the week ahead.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week flat at $98.273.

For the EUR:

It’s also a busy week ahead on the economic data.

In the first half of the week, November manufacturing and service PMI numbers are due out on Monday and Wednesday.

Barring deviation from prelims, the focus will be on Spain, Italy, and the Eurozone numbers.

Through the 2nd half of the week, German factory orders and retail sales figures are due out on Thursday. On Friday, industrial production figures for October are due out.

Following stats that were skewed to the positive last week, the markets will be looking for a pickup in private sector activity.

Spanish unemployment change figures on Tuesday will likely have a muted impact on Tuesday. Barring deviation from 2nd estimates, the Eurozone’s GDP numbers would also likely be brushed aside.

Outside of the numbers, expect geopolitical risk to also influence.

From the U.S, progress towards a phase 1 trade agreement will provide direction, while we can expect UK politics to also begin to influence.

The EUR/USD ended the week down by 0.03% to $1.1018.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Finalized November private sector PMIs are due out on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Following disappointing prelim figures, any upward revisions would be a boost for the Pound.