The Week Ahead – Economic Data, the BoE, and the FED in Focus
On the Macro
It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 49 stats in focus in the week ending 19th March. In the week prior, 45 stats had been in focus.
For the Dollar:
It’s a busier week ahead.
NY Empire State manufacturing numbers get things going on Monday.
The focus will then shift to February retail sales and industrial production figures on Tuesday.
With consumption a key area of focus, expect the retail sales figures to have a greater impact.
On Thursday, the weekly jobless claim and Philly FED Manufacturing PMI numbers will also draw attention.
Other stats include housing, import and export price, and business inventory numbers. We would expect these to have a muted impact on the Dollar, however.
While the stats will influence, the FED monetary policy decision on Wednesday will be the main event.
Following reflationary fears, the FOMC projections will be key, barring an unexpected move by the FED.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.33% to 91.679.
For the EUR:
It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic data front.
ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will influence on Tuesday. We’ve seen greater sensitivity to the ZEW numbers of late.
On Wednesday, finalized inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out. Barring upward revisions, however, the numbers should have a relatively muted impact on the EUR.
In the 2nd half of the week, Eurozone trade data and wage growth figures and German wholesale inflation numbers will be in focus.
Barring particularly dire figures, however, we don’t expect too much impact from trade and wage growth figures.
Away from the economic calendar, a new spike in COVID-19 cases and new containment measures could test EUR support early in the week.
The EUR ended the week up by 0.32% to $1.1953.
For the Pound:
It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction in the week.
While there are no stats, the BoE is in action on Thursday, however.
Expect plenty of movement before, during, and after.
The markets will be looking to get the BoE’s view on inflation and the economic outlook. A shift in monetary policy had been on the cards after the review of negative rates…
The Pound ended the week up by 0.60% to $1.3924.
For the Loonie:
It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar.
Early in the week, housing starts and manufacturing sales figures are due out.
We don’t expect too much influence, however, with data from China likely to garner more interest.
Mid-week, February inflation figures will provide the Loonie with direction ahead of retail sales figures on Friday.