There is a growing concern in Silicon Valley that the progress around artificial intelligence is slowly “losing steam”. CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa explores whether AI progress is slowing, and what it means for the industry. Early signs of struggle are bubbling up in major tech names. As highlighted by Bosa, the first sign of things slowing down has been a lack of progression between models. OpenAI has led the pack in AI advancements, with each of the new models of ChatGPT exponentially better than the last.
Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about today. OpenAI's highly anticipated model Orion was expected to be a ground-breaking system bringing us closer to AGI. However, the initial vision is being scaled back.
“While Orion’s performance ended up exceeding that of prior models, the increase in quality was far smaller compared with the jump between GPT-3 and GPT-4, the last two flagship models the company released, according to some OpenAI employees who have used or tested Orion”.
The same roadblocks have been happening to other AI models, such as that by Anthropic. Just like OpenAI, Anthropic is also witnessing a timetable slip for the release of its long-awaited Claude model called 3.5 Opus.
"The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit. It's become clear that 'different training approaches' may be needed to make AI models work really well on a variety of tasks."
Even some of the big tech giants aren't enthusiastic about the progress AI has been making. Speaking during the New York Times annual DealBook summit at Jazz at Lincoln Center, Sundar Pichai stated how generative AI won’t be changing lives in 2025— at least, not more than it already has.
“I think the progress is going to get harder. When I look at [2025], the low-hanging fruit is gone. The hill is steeper ... You’re definitely going to need deeper breakthroughs as we get to the next stage”.
However, if progress is plateauing, it has to do with scaling laws. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei states that the scaling laws are a misnomer. He emphasizes that while these patterns have historically guided AI development—suggesting that increasing data and computational power leads to improved AI capabilities—they are not guaranteed to continue indefinitely.
As such, AI companies have been turning to synthetic AI, i.e. data generated artificially. The Information reports that Orion was produced based on synthetic data. However, the problem has been that low-quality data, in turn, leads to low-quality performance. As such, with leading tech companies poised to unveil new models over the next eighteen months, their pace of progress—or lack thereof—has the potential to dramatically redefine the dynamics of the competition.
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Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is an automotive and clean energy company that leverages advanced artificial intelligence in its autonomous driving technology and robotics initiatives. On December 16, the company was revisited by Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives who maintained a “Buy” rating on the stock and a $515.00 price target. Ives has rated Tesla as a Buy owing to the company’s potential growth and strategic positioning in the autonomous and AI sectors. The regulatory environment under the Trump administration is anticipated to be positive for the company, helping to accelerate the company’s initiatives in autonomous driving and AI.
According to Ives, the electric vehicle maker has the potential to pass the $1 trillion market cap threshold under Trump. The strong demand in the Chinese market will further help it reach $2 trillion by the end of 2025, he noted. Ives also highlighted the financial potential of increased Full Self-Driving (FSD) adoption and new products like the Cybercab, which could transform Tesla’s margins and business model. According to him, Tesla isn’t just a car company, but a disruptive tech leader. Furthermore, it is an attractive investment opportunity given that its current valuation doesn’t fully capture the potential of artificial intelligence.
Overall TSLA ranks 4th on our list of the AI stocks that are dominating Wall Street. While we acknowledge the potential of TSLA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TSLA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
