Webull(NASDAQ: BULL) went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on April 11. The online brokerage's stock started trading at $16 that Friday, but it soared to a record closing price of $62.90 the following Monday.
After that dizzying rally, Webull's stock pulled back to around $23. Let's review Webull's business model and see if it's the right time to buy or sell its volatile shares.
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A brief history of Webull
Webull was founded in 2016 as Hunan Fumi Information Technology, a Chinese holding company backed by Xiaomi, Shunwei Capital, and other private equity investors in China. Its founder, Anquan Wang, previously worked at Alibaba.
In 2017, Hunan Fumi launched Webull as a Delaware-based LLC and opened its headquarters New York City. Webull subsequently launched its namesake trading app in 2018, and it incorporated itself as a new company in the Cayman Islands in 2019.
In 2022, Webull moved its headquarters to St. Petersburg, Florida, and restructured its business to separate Hunan Fumi, its original Chinese holding company, from the rest of its growing business. That split paved the way for Webull's recent merger with SK Growth Opportunities, a SPAC affiliated with the South Korean conglomerate SK Group.
Webull is technically a U.S.-based company now, but last November a coalition of states attorneys general launched a probe into its alleged ties to the Chinese government. Those allegations could expose Webull to the same regulatory risks as other Chinese-affiliated apps, including ByteDance's TikTok and PDD's Temu.
How fast is Webull growing?
Webull is similar to Robinhood(NASDAQ: HOOD). Both companies provide commission-free trades for stocks, ETFs, options, cryptocurrencies, and fixed-income investments on their streamlined mobile apps. However, Webull claims it serves more experienced investors than Robinhood, which carved out its niche by locking in millions of first-time investors.
Both companies generate their revenue with a "payment for order flow" (PFOF) model that routes their clients' brokerage orders through high-frequency trading (HFT) firms in exchange for commissions for each routed order. Both companies also offer paid subscription tiers that offer real-time data and other perks.
Webull operates in 14 markets, and it's a licensed broker-dealer in the U.S., Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Australia, the U.K., the Netherlands, and South Africa. Robinhood is only a licensed broker-dealer in the U.S., the U.K., and Lithuania.
Webull served more than 23.3 million registered users at the end of 2024, but it had only 4.7 million funded accounts with $13.6 billion in customer assets. By comparison, Robinhood served 25.2 million funded customers at the end of 2024 with $193 billion in assets under custody. So while Webull is more globally diversified than Robinhood, it's still a distant underdog.
If we divide their total assets by funded customers, we also see that the average size of a Webull account was only $2,894 at the end of 2024, versus an average account size of $7,659 at Robinhood. That big gap indicates that Webull's customers aren't as affluent as Robinhood's -- even though it argues its a platform for more "experienced" investors.
In 2024, Webull's registered user base grew 18%, its funded accounts increased 9%, and its total assets increased 66%. However, its total revenue stayed nearly flat at $390 million, its operating expenses rose 10% to $404.5 million, and its adjusted operating margin dropped from 13.4% to 4.7%. For reference, Robinhood's revenue surged 58% to $2.95 billion in 2024.
The two reasons to buy Webull... and the four reasons to sell it
The bulls might like Webull for two reasons: It's more geographically diversified than Robinhood, and it's still gaining new users and accounts in those fertile markets.
However, the bears probably think Webull's stock will fizzle out for four reasons. First, its flat top-line growth indicates it's struggling to squeeze more revenue from its existing users. Second, it's never a good sign when the underdog is growing slower than a market leader -- and Webull's metrics look grim compared to Robinhood's. Third, Webull looks overvalued. With a market cap of $10.8 billion, it trades at a whopping 28 times last year's sales. Robinhood, with a market cap of $37.3 billion, trades at 13 times last year's sales. Last but not least, it could be hit by more regulatory probes regarding its links to China.
Therefore, the reasons to sell or avoid Webull easily outweigh the reasons to buy it. If you're interested in investing in a commission-free brokerage, it makes more sense to stick with Robinhood than with its smaller and slower-growing competitor.
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