Will Weakness in Santos Limited's (ASX:STO) Stock Prove Temporary Given Strong Fundamentals?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Thu, Apr 3, 2025, 2:02 PM 4 min read

With its stock down 4.5% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Santos (ASX:STO). However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. In this article, we decided to focus on Santos' ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Santos is:

8.1% = US$1.3b ÷ US$16b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every A$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn A$0.08 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Santos

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Santos' Earnings Growth And 8.1% ROE

On the face of it, Santos' ROE is not much to talk about. However, the fact that the company's ROE is higher than the average industry ROE of 4.9%, is definitely interesting. Even more so after seeing Santos' exceptional 34% net income growth over the past five years. That being said, the company does have a slightly low ROE to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. Hence, there might be some other aspects that are causing earnings to grow. Such as- high earnings retention or the company belonging to a high growth industry.

Next, on comparing Santos' net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 34% over the last few years.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:STO Past Earnings Growth April 3rd 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Santos''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio , as compared to its industry.

Is Santos Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

The three-year median payout ratio for Santos is 45%, which is moderately low. The company is retaining the remaining 55%. So it seems that Santos is reinvesting efficiently in a way that it sees impressive growth in its earnings (discussed above) and pays a dividend that's well covered.

Moreover, Santos is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 64% over the next three years. Despite the higher expected payout ratio, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with Santos' performance. Specifically, we like that it has been reinvesting a high portion of its profits at a moderate rate of return, resulting in earnings expansion. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.