Should Weakness in Orora Limited's (ASX:ORA) Stock Be Seen As A Sign That Market Will Correct The Share Price Given Decent Financials?

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Wed, Nov 13, 2024, 4:00 PM 4 min read

Orora (ASX:ORA) has had a rough month with its share price down 4.2%. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Specifically, we decided to study Orora's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Orora

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Orora is:

8.9% = AU$185m ÷ AU$2.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.09 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Orora's Earnings Growth And 8.9% ROE

On the face of it, Orora's ROE is not much to talk about. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 8.1%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. Even so, Orora has shown a fairly decent growth in its net income which grew at a rate of 19%. Taking into consideration that the ROE is not particularly high, we reckon that there could also be other factors at play which could be influencing the company's growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

As a next step, we compared Orora's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 10%.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:ORA Past Earnings Growth November 13th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Orora is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Orora Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

While Orora has a three-year median payout ratio of 84% (which means it retains 16% of profits), the company has still seen a fair bit of earnings growth in the past, meaning that its high payout ratio hasn't hampered its ability to grow.

Additionally, Orora has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 69%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 10%.

Summary

In total, it does look like Orora has some positive aspects to its business. While no doubt its earnings growth is pretty substantial, we do feel that the reinvestment rate is pretty low, meaning, the earnings growth number could have been significantly higher had the company been retaining more of its profits. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.