Weak Financial Prospects Seem To Be Dragging Down Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA) Stock

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 1:16 PM 4 min read

With its stock down 14% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA). To decide if this trend could continue, we decided to look at its weak fundamentals as they shape the long-term market trends. Specifically, we decided to study Viva Energy Group's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for Viva Energy Group

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Viva Energy Group is:

7.5% = AU$161m ÷ AU$2.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.07.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Viva Energy Group's Earnings Growth And 7.5% ROE

On the face of it, Viva Energy Group's ROE is not much to talk about. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 15%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 4.6% seen by Viva Energy Group was probably the result of it having a lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

So, as a next step, we compared Viva Energy Group's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 36% over the last few years.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:VEA Past Earnings Growth November 19th 2024

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is VEA worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether VEA is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Viva Energy Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Viva Energy Group has a high three-year median payout ratio of 62% (that is, it is retaining 38% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. Our risks dashboard should have the 5 risks we have identified for Viva Energy Group.

In addition, Viva Energy Group has been paying dividends over a period of six years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is preferred by the management even though earnings have been in decline. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 68%. Regardless, the future ROE for Viva Energy Group is predicted to rise to 24% despite there being not much change expected in its payout ratio.

Conclusion

In total, we would have a hard think before deciding on any investment action concerning Viva Energy Group. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.