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Wave Life Sciences Ltd. (NASDAQ:WVE) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 159% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$0.47. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Wave Life Sciences
After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Wave Life Sciences are now predicting revenues of US$63.4m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$1.06 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$64.5m and losses of US$0.98 per share in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a moderate increase in its losses per share forecasts.
Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 12% to 19.8, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Wave Life Sciences at US$36.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Wave Life Sciences' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 40% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Wave Life Sciences is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.