The United Kingdom has decided to refrain from an attack on Syria, although the United States may go it alone (or perhaps with France.) Obama has agreed to pass the decision to Congress which will debate the matter no earlier than September 9. And in Congress, Obama could lose his chance to punish Syria for its use of gas which killed over 1,400 people, altogether. A limited military action, if approved, could blunt the use of these chemical weapons. However, it could add to the violence and instability in the entire region. Whether or not Syria’s government is affected, its economy is bound to worsen, probably faster than the turmoil so far has caused already.
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From the standpoint of these economic consequences, Syria’s gross domestic product (GDP) and imports and exports will have no effect on the economy in the rest of the world. It is too small.
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On the basis of nominal GDP, Syria ranks 63rd among all countries, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The nation’s GDP last year was a mere $74 billion, making it smaller on that basis than Ecuador and Morocco. The country’s population is just above 22 million. Syria has walled off access to its data, as far as the IMF is concerned, which means little can be determined about how badly it has been damaged recently. The IMF reported on August 2:
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On July 26, 2013 the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was informed that there could not be a briefing to the Board with an assessment of economic developments and policies in Syria, whose Article IV consultation is delayed by 26 months, due to a lack of adequate information that would allow staff to make such an assessment.
The World Bank has had slightly more success, as it reported in April:
The impact of the crisis on the economy is significant, which may, according to unconfirmed estimates have contracted 3 percent in 2011 and about 20 percent in 2012. Most affected by the conflict, as well as by the subsequent international sanctions, were tourism, retail trade, transportation, communications, mining and manufacturing.
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The agency added:
Declining oil revenue following the imposition of sanctions on Syrian oil imports by the European Union as well as a significant economic contraction is also putting government finances under pressure. Latest data released by the International Energy Agency shows that oil output was consistently below 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2012, compared to 400,000 bpd in 2009.