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Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
The earnings figure itself is key, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb even higher.
2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to look at a qualifying stock. Transocean (RIG) holds a Zacks Rank #3 at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.05 a share 28 days away from its upcoming earnings release on February 17, 2025.
RIG has an Earnings ESP figure of 58.83%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.05 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.03.
RIG is just one of a large group of Oils-Energy stocks with a positive ESP figure. Kinder Morgan (KMI) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Kinder Morgan, which is readying to report earnings on January 22, 2025, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.33 a share, and KMI is two days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinder Morgan is $0.33, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of 0.76%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, RIG and KMI could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>