Wall Street’s Uber Bull Tom Lee Makes Next Bold Bet in ETF Era

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(Bloomberg) — Wall Street prognosticators tend to huddle around the consensus, afraid to stand out for fear of being wrong. Then there’s Tom Lee.

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The chief investment officer at Fundstrat Capital has made his name with bold calls (the S&P 500 (^GSPC) at 15,000; Bitcoin (BTC-USD) to $10 million). His unabashedly bullish takes, for which he makes no apologies, have drawn legions of online followers in this anything-goes era of market speculation — fueled by do-it-yourself retail investors.

Now, the former JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist is looking to cash in on his renown with a new exchange-traded fund, the Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY), which launched earlier this month and has already raked in more than $400 million. It’s the first of what he hopes will be many to follow.

The fund’s name, like the list of equity recommendations Lee has provided clients since 2019, is derived from an unconventional basketball free-throw style he likens to his systematic, theme-based stock-picking process. It may not look the coolest, Lee says, but it has the highest chance of success.

“Our clients and their loyalty and the fact that we’re still growing really rapidly as a research firm is not just because we’re bulls,” Lee said in an interview, adding the firm has a dedicated institutional following as well. “It’s because we’ve given them many reasons to understand why markets should do what they’re doing.”

The ETF is off to a strong start. GRNY is up 2.2% since its early November launch, compared to a 0.2% advance for the S&P 500 over the same span. Its $412 million of inflows puts it in the top 10% of fund debuts this year based on speed of asset accumulation, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Still, GRNY is launching amid a difficult run for stock pickers. Roughly two-thirds of large cap managers have underperformed the S&P 500 this year through the end of October, data from Strategas Research show. In fact, more than half of active managers have trailed the benchmark in 14 of the last 15 years.

Thematic ETFs have also fallen out of favor recently, with outflows in nine out of 10 months this year through October, Bloomberg Intelligence data show.

That won’t deter Lee. GRNY is based on four longer-term themes, including easing financial conditions and global labor suppliers, and three shorter-term ones like seasonality and style tilt. Stocks that aligned with two or more of the themes are included in the fund. Meta Platforms Inc. falls into five themes, for example, while Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Garmin Ltd. fit into four.