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S&P 500 (^GSPC) projections for next year have a new high-water mark.
Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus initiated a year-end 2025 S&P 500 target of 7,100 in a note to clients on Sunday night, marking the highest projection among strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance. The target represents roughly a 17% upside for the benchmark index from Friday's closing level.
Stoltzfus wrote his bullish outlook is "based on a number of factors including current stateside monetary policy, the resilience in economic growth, business activity, the consumer, and job creation evidenced in recent years and the current year."
The stock market trading at an increasingly high valuation is a key part of Stoltzfus's call, which pushes his target well above peers, who have targets ranging from 6,400 to 7,007. Stoltzfus sees S&P 500 earnings per share hitting $275, representing about 10% growth from his year-end 2024 call.
This isn't largely ahead of consensus. But Stoltzfus expects the S&P 500's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio to rise, hitting 25.8 times forward earnings, well above the five-year average of 20 times earnings.
Stoltzfus is one of several Wall Street equity strategists to cite resilient economic growth as a key driver in the year ahead. For instance, Wells Fargo's Christopher Harvey, who is the only other strategist to project the S&P 500 will close above 7,000 in 2025, highlighted a "cyclical opportunity catalyzed by upward GDP revisions."
A popular callout within that pitch has been an argument for the market rally to continue to broaden from the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks to the other 493 members of the S&P 500. Stoltzfus noted that the broadening of the equity rally over the past year suggests that "the current bull market likely has legs strong enough to climb the proverbial 'wall of worry' into and through 2025."
Stoltzfus did cite the rising use cases for artificial intelligence as a tailwind but noted he sees this as a potential benefit across all 11 sectors as it drives productivity increases.
"We’re not suggesting paradise on earth nor are we expecting a 'Goldilocks world' but rather a genuine potential for AI to provide greater efficiencies in key areas that are challenging progress today across the sectors and society," Stoltzfus wrote. "The potential for better virtual shovels and virtual drill bits to mine a world of increasing mountains of data to find solutions at a quicker pace could be one of its greatest contributions."