Wage Growth at Smallest US Firms Accelerates Most in Two Years

(Bloomberg) -- Wage growth among the smallest US businesses accelerated in November for the first time since early last year, according to data from the ADP Research Institute.

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Paychecks at firms that employ fewer than 20 people grew at a 4.2% annual rate in the month — climbing from 3.9% in October, the biggest jump since early 2022.

That cohort of tiny firms employs more than a quarter of the US workforce, and an acceleration in wages there may be of concern to Federal Reserve policymakers, who are closely watching the labor market for signs of upward pressure on inflation.

Among slightly larger firms that employ between 20 and 49 people, wage growth also accelerated slightly last month. The two smallest categories in the ADP surveys account for more than 40% of the labor force between them. For firms that have staff of 50 or more people, wage growth in November was either somewhat slower than the previous month, or unchanged.

The ADP study also showed that the gap between pay gains for people who change jobs versus those who stay put — a measure that can point to tightness in labor markets — widened for the first time since March. At 2.4%, the gap remains far narrower than the highs above 8% that it reached in 2022, when US businesses were scrambling to hire in the pandemic recovery, offering ample opportunities for workers to win a substantial pay hike by switching jobs.

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