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Stock ETFs, including the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), slid further as of midday Monday as investors await clarity around what salvos President Donald Trump plans to fire next in his trade war. Meanwhile, bond funds gained as investors gravitated toward safe havens.
The $598.8 billion VOO, the world’s biggest exchange-traded fund, lost 0.7% by midday before rallying to close slightly higher at $513.91. Still, it booked for a first-quarter slide of nearly 5%, reflecting what would be the S&P 500’s worst quarter since 2022, according to Bloomberg.
The $305.5 billion Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) also fell, losing 1.3% by midday before recovering to a loss of just $0.20 per share as mounting recession fears crimped the outlook for once-hot technology and artificial intelligence stocks.
Investors bid up the safest investments after President Trump this weekend said that his next tariffs might be extended to all nations. And his April 2 “Liberation Day” stokes uncertainty around what may or may not be launched in the trade war. The biggest fixed-income ETF, the $126.8 billion Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) rose 0.2%, while the $51.1 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) jumped 1% to add to its 4% gain this quarter.
"Falling prices are a clear vote of low confidence in the current direction of the U.S. economy," etf.com Senior Content Editor Kent Thune, CFP, said.
Goldman Boosts Recession Odds
Trump’s tariffs and threats have hurt U.S. markets more than Europe’s so far this year.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) boosted its odds for a U.S. recession to 35%, saying risks of reciprocal tariffs are rising, while also cutting its outlook for the S&P 500 to 5,700, only about 150 points from its current level.
“Higher tariffs are likely to boost consumer crisis,” Goldman wrote, according to a CNN report.
Against that backdrop, the S&P 500 is about to close its worst quarter compared with the rest of the world since the 1980s, according to Bloomberg.
Investors have been pulling back equity bets since Trump was sworn in. Last week, inflows into ETFs dropped dramatically, falling 83% to $10.5 billion from $62.5 billion the previous week, according to etf.com data.
Fundstrat Global Advisor's Thomas Lee tweeted that fund managers expect the “economy will tank” after Liberation Day due to anxieties over a lack of market visibility, tariffs, and fears over Trump policies. He said his comment was based on weekend conversations.